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Summary for Tropical Storm Rose (AT2/AL172021)

2021-09-20 04:49:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ROSE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 19 the center of Rose was located near 15.3, -31.1 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Rose Public Advisory Number 4

2021-09-20 04:49:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 138 WTNT32 KNHC 200249 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 ...ROSE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 31.1W ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 31.1 West. Rose is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A slightly slower northwestward motion is forecast over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through Monday. By Tuesday, upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive, and Rose is forecast to begin a slow weakening trend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Advisory Number 4

2021-09-20 04:49:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 139 WTNT22 KNHC 200249 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0300 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 31.1W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 31.1W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 30.6W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.9N 32.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.9N 34.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.9N 35.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.6N 36.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.9N 37.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.0N 38.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 27.1N 40.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 29.0N 40.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 31.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Discussion Number 3

2021-09-19 22:39:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 192039 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 800 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 Satellite images show that deep convection has increased in coverage near the low-level center during the last 6 hours, while the overall structure of the tropical cyclone has also improved. Based on the improved organization and consensus T-2.5 numbers from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is set to 35 kt, making Rose the seventeenth named storm of the busy 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. Only 2005 and 2020 have had the seventeenth named storm on an earlier date. The 12-hour motion is north-northwest, or 330/14. However, Rose appears to be moving more in a northwest direction during the past few hours. This is probably the start of a northwest motion that should continue through day 4 as the system moves along the southwestern and western periphery of a subtropical ridge that extends from Africa across the Cabo Verde Islands. A turn to the north is predicted in about 5 days, as Rose comes under the influence of a strong mid-level trough approaching from the northwest. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast. Environmental conditions are conducive for strengthening during the next day or so, with low wind shear, SSTs near 27C, and sufficient mid-level atmospheric moisture. Therefore, a little more strengthening is shown compared to the previous NHC forecast. The new NHC forecast is in agreement with the various consensus aids, but slightly below the SHIPS model, in deference to the global models which show a weaker cyclone. Westerly wind shear will likely increase in about 36 hours as a strong upper-level trough approaches from the northwest. Given that the cyclone is forecast to remain rather small, it will likely be vulnerable to the higher shear so weakening is forecast in the 36-72 h time period. Beyond day 3, a further increase in wind shear is expected to cause Rose to weaken to a tropical depression. Although not explicitly forecast, it is possible that the cyclone could become a remnant low in 4-5 days if the shear is too much for the system to handle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 14.3N 29.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 15.9N 31.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 17.9N 33.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 20.0N 34.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 22.0N 36.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 23.5N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 24.7N 38.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 26.7N 40.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 28.7N 41.2W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen/Blake

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