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Tropical Storm ERIKA Graphics
2015-08-26 16:47:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Aug 2015 14:47:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Aug 2015 14:46:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion Number 7
2015-08-26 16:46:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED AUG 26 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 261446 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1100 AM AST WED AUG 26 2015 Deep convection associated with Erika has increased during the past 24 hours, but the overall organization of the tropical cyclone has not changed very much. Reconnaissance aircraft data indicate that the center is located near the northwestern edge of the thunderstorm activity due to moderate northwesterly shear. The aircraft has measured believable SFMR winds of around 40 kt this morning, and the initial intensity is set at that value. Erika is forecast to pass through an environment of moderate to strong westerly vertical wind shear during the next two to three days. The shear will be caused by an upper-level low that is expected to remain near eastern Cuba through Friday. The upper low is forecast to weaken on Saturday, which should produce a more conducive upper-level wind pattern over the Bahamas. The NHC intensity forecast calls for little change in strength through 72 hours, which is in line with the latest statistical guidance. After that time, strengthening is indicated due to the expected more favorable upper-level environment. The official forecast lies between the more robust HWRF/GFDL and lower statistical guidance. An alternative forecast scenario, supported by the GFS model, is that Erika weakens to a tropical wave due to the shear and interaction with the Greater Antilles. The amount of strengthening on days 4-5 will be dependent in part on how Erika responds to the the preceding unfavorable shear. The initial motion estimate is 280/15 kt. Erika is expected to move westward to west-northwestward during the next several days to the south of a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. The track guidance is in good agreement through much of the forecast period, with the exception of the GFDL model that takes a stronger storm northwestward much sooner. The new NHC track is essentially an update of the previous advisory and is close to a consensus of the ECMWF, GFS, HWRF, and UKMET. This is also in good agreement with the Florida State Superensemble. One should remember to not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at the long range where the average NHC track errors during the past 5 years are about 180 miles at day 4 and 240 miles at day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 16.1N 57.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 16.7N 59.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 17.6N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 18.7N 65.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 19.8N 68.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 22.0N 73.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 24.4N 77.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 31/1200Z 26.5N 80.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm ERIKA (AT5/AL052015)
2015-08-26 16:46:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERIKA CONTINUES WESTWARD TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 26 the center of ERIKA was located near 16.1, -57.6 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2015-08-26 16:46:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 261446 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 12(23) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 12(26) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 8(29) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 7(30) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 18(28) 3(31) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 14(25) 2(27) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 6(30) 1(31) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 26(31) 2(33) X(33) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 1(13) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 16(24) 1(25) X(25) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONCE 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 11(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) PONCE 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PONCE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JUAN 34 X 2( 2) 33(35) 11(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 6( 6) 46(52) 2(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT CROIX 34 X 8( 8) 37(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 41(42) 20(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 55(56) 7(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X 10(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARBUDA 34 3 68(71) 2(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) BARBUDA 50 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BARBUDA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ANTIGUA 34 3 67(70) 2(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) ANTIGUA 50 X 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ANTIGUA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GUADELOUPE 34 3 47(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) GUADELOUPE 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AVES 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DOMINICA 34 1 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Advisory Number 7
2015-08-26 16:46:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 261446 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANGUILLA * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY * MONTSERRAT * ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA * ST. KITTS AND NEVIS * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 57.6W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 30SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 57.6W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 56.8W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.7N 59.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.6N 63.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.7N 65.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.8N 68.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.0N 73.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 24.4N 77.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 26.5N 80.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 57.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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