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Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-08-25 16:47:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 251447 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 The cloud pattern of the system has deteriorated this morning, and deep convection is rather limited at this time. Microwave and high-resolution visible imagery indicates that the center is to the north of the main area of deep convection, and the current intensity is maintained at 40 kt based on a recent ASCAT overpass. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Erika later today and should provide a good estimate of the strength of the system. The dynamical guidance indicates that the future environment of the tropical cyclone will be characterized by marginal humidity and around 15 to 20 kt of vertical shear. This should allow for only slow strengthening at best. The official forecast is similar to the HWRF guidance during the first half of the forecast period, and close to the model consensus near the end of the period. Given the current state of the system and the possibility of stronger shear, however, there is less than usual confidence in the NHC intensity forecast. The initial motion is just north of west or 280/17 kt. The track forecast reasoning is similar to that from the previous advisory package. Over the next couple of days, Erika should be steered west-northwestward on the southern side of a subtropical ridge. Later in the forecast period, the track models diverge with the HWRF and U.K. Met. office models taking the system more to the north and east of the consensus and the ECMWF and GFS farther west. The official forecast leans toward the latter guidance and is left of the multi-model consensus. Given the significant spread in the guidance in 3 to 5 days, confidence in the track forecast late in the period is low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 15.2N 51.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 15.8N 53.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 16.6N 56.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 17.4N 59.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 18.0N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 20.0N 67.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 22.5N 72.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 24.5N 75.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2015-08-25 16:47:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 25 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 251447 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1500 UTC TUE AUG 25 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 15(27) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 17(34) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 10(37) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 27(35) 5(40) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) 2(27) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) 1(20) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 3(30) X(30) PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) PONCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 3(37) X(37) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 29(41) 2(43) X(43) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 24(37) 1(38) X(38) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 16(53) 1(54) X(54) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) X(17) X(17) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 9(44) 1(45) X(45) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 13(13) 36(49) 5(54) X(54) X(54) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 11(11) 31(42) 4(46) X(46) X(46) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) 1(28) 1(29) X(29) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) AVES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) X(12) 1(13) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm ERIKA (AT5/AL052015)
2015-08-25 16:46:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERIKA SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AT THIS TIME... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Aug 25 the center of ERIKA was located near 15.2, -51.0 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 3
2015-08-25 16:46:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 251446 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 ...ERIKA SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AT THIS TIME... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 51.0W ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Montserrat * Antigua and Barbuda * St. Kitts and Nevis * Anguilla * Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten * Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 51.0 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will be near the Leeward Islands Wednesday night and early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday night or early Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Advisory Number 3
2015-08-25 16:46:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 25 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 251446 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1500 UTC TUE AUG 25 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GUADELOUPE...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MONTSERRAT * ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA * ST. KITTS AND NEVIS * ANGUILLA * SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN * GUADELOUPE...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 51.0W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 60SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 51.0W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 50.2W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.8N 53.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.6N 56.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.4N 59.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.0N 62.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.0N 67.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 22.5N 72.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 24.5N 75.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 51.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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