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Tropical Storm Philippe Graphics
2017-10-29 09:46:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Oct 2017 08:46:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Oct 2017 08:46:36 GMT
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Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Discussion Number 7
2017-10-29 09:41:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 290841 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 500 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Philippe is a very poorly organized system, and it is a stretch to call it a tropical cyclone at this time. The most trackable center passed near Key West a couple of hours ago and has moved into the Straits of Florida. Given that northwesterly winds are now observed over southeastern Florida, however, it is unlikely that this is a unique center of circulation. Therefore, the advisory location near the southern tip of Florida is more of a mean center position. Given that, the initial motion is a highly uncertain 070/15 kt. Regardless of its precise location, the overall system should turn northeastward to north-northeastward and accelerate considerably ahead of a high amplitude 500 mb trough near the United States east coast. Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that the maximum sustained winds were near 40 kt over the Straits of Florida. Deep convection has been displaced well to the northeast of the estimated center by nearly 50 kt of deep-layer shear. The shear is forecast to increase even more, and Philippe is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours as it becomes embedded within a cold front that is approaching from the northwest. The above-mentioned trough is likely to induce some baroclinic intensification of the storm today and tonight. By Monday, however, the global models show the cyclone becoming absorbed into a larger and stronger extratropical low near New England. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 25.0N 81.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 29.2N 77.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 36.0N 72.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Philippe (AT3/AL182017)
2017-10-29 09:41:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POORLY ORGANIZED PHILIPPE NEAR EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 the center of Philippe was located near 25.0, -81.0 with movement ENE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Philippe Public Advisory Number 7
2017-10-29 09:41:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 290840 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 500 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 ...POORLY ORGANIZED PHILIPPE NEAR EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 81.0W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SW OF MIAMI FLORIDA ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch from Craig Key to Golden Beach Florida and for the Central Bahamas is discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara * Northwestern Bahamas For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was estimated near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 81.0 West. Philippe is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected during the next few hours, and a rapid motion toward the northeast is expected through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will move across the southern tip of the Florida peninsula this morning, and then across the northwestern Bahamas later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. However, Philippe is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by tonight, and to become absorbed by an extratropical low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Philippe is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the northern Bahamas and eastern Cuba, and additional rain accumulations of less than 1 inch over south Florida. This rainfall could cause flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in the mountainous terrain of Cuba. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to end in the warning area in Cuba this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area in the northwestern Bahamas later this morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Philippe Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2017-10-29 09:41:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 29 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 290840 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017 0900 UTC SUN OCT 29 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 23(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SURF CITY NC 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 25 X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) W PALM BEACH 34 90 X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) FT LAUDERDALE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MIAMI FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARATHON FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KEY WEST FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NAPLES FL 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 80 X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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