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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-07-11 04:45:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 110245 TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019 The system is becoming better organized, and it is almost a tropical depression. Satellite images show a persistent area of deep convection near the estimated center with loosely organized bands surrounding that feature. Earlier, the NOAA Hurricane Hunters found that the pressure has dropped a little to 1009 mb, although the center is not yet well defined. The estimated initial intensity is still 25 kt based on surface observations and the NOAA dropsonde data. The broad low is moving west-southwestward at about 8 kt. The track models are in general agreement that a mid-level ridge centered over the Rockies should cause the system to move slowly westward on Thursday and west-northwestward on Friday. After that time, however, the models diverge considerably with some solutions showing an abrupt northward turn toward a weakness in the ridge and others showing a more gradual one. The latest GFS run has shifted to the west of its previous track, closer to the previous NHC forecast, while the HWRF model has shifted to the right. Based on the overall guidance spread, this track forecast is nudged to the east of the previous forecast to be closer to the various consensus models, which typically are the most reliable. However, this forecast is still near the western edge of the model envelope. It should be noted that track errors are typically larger for potential tropical cyclones than more mature systems. In addition, the run-to-run consistency in the track models has been poor, so confidence in the details of the forecast is not high at the moment. Since the system is still in the formative stage, only slow strengthening is likely during the next 12 hours or so. However, after that time more significant strengthening is likely due to very warm SSTs across the northern Gulf of Mexico, a fairly moist atmosphere, and a favorable upper-level pattern over the system. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and shows the system becoming a tropical storm on Thursday and a hurricane by late Friday. Additional strengthening is likely beyond the 48-hour point and the time it makes landfall, which is predicted to occur in a little less than 3 days. This forecast is fairly close to the IVCN and HCCA models. Key Messages: 1. A tropical depression is expected to form on Thursday over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for this system to strengthen to a hurricane that will bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to the central Gulf Coast. 2. A dangerous storm surge is possible in portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Additional storm surge watches may be needed on Thursday. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and listen to any advice given by local officials. 3. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for much of the Louisiana coast and additional tropical storm or hurricane watches and warnings could be needed on Thursday. Residents in the watch area should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. 4. The slow movement of this system will result in a long duration heavy rainfall threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend and potentially into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant, especially along and east of the track of the system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 27.7N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 11/1200Z 27.6N 88.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 12/0000Z 27.6N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 27.9N 90.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 28.3N 91.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 30.2N 92.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 96H 15/0000Z 32.8N 92.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 16/0000Z 35.5N 92.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2019-07-11 04:45:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 11 Jul 2019 02:45:35 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2019-07-11 04:45:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 11 Jul 2019 02:45:35 GMT
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two (AT2/AL022019)
2019-07-11 04:37:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SYSTEM IS ALMOST A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 10:00 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 the center of Two was located near 27.7, -88.0 with movement WSW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2019-07-11 04:37:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 11 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 110237 PWSAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019 0300 UTC THU JUL 11 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 2(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 6(18) 1(19) X(19) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 3(21) X(21) GULFPORT MS 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 11(22) 18(40) 2(42) X(42) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 25(33) 5(38) X(38) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) 19(37) 2(39) X(39) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 890W 34 15 31(46) 13(59) 6(65) 4(69) 1(70) X(70) GFMX 280N 890W 50 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 21(24) 9(33) 1(34) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 13(17) 30(47) 4(51) 1(52) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) 1(14) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 18(19) 44(63) 20(83) 6(89) X(89) X(89) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 1( 1) 17(18) 24(42) 12(54) X(54) X(54) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 9(22) 1(23) X(23) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 44(58) 7(65) 1(66) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 5(25) X(25) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 25(32) 35(67) 3(70) X(70) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 4(30) X(30) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 44(49) 15(64) X(64) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 7(23) 1(24) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 50(67) 7(74) 1(75) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 7(38) X(38) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 47(70) 4(74) 1(75) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 6(37) X(37) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 34(50) 21(71) 1(72) X(72) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 20(32) 1(33) X(33) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 16(35) 2(37) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) SHREVEPORT LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 42(47) 13(60) X(60) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 7(22) 1(23) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 49(59) 8(67) X(67) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 7(30) 1(31) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) CAMERON LA 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 27(35) 35(70) 4(74) X(74) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 4(38) X(38) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 3(17) X(17) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 31(35) 12(47) 1(48) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 31(36) 9(45) X(45) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 38(44) 7(51) X(51) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 4(18) X(18) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 26(41) 4(45) X(45) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 16(19) 4(23) X(23) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 13(16) 3(19) X(19) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 17(30) 2(32) X(32) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 16(20) 30(50) 4(54) X(54) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) X(17) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19) 2(21) X(21) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 1(13) X(13) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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