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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen (AT4/AL142018)
2018-10-07 07:37:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE MEANDERING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 1:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 7 the center of Fourteen was located near 18.4, -87.1 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Public Advisory Number 2A
2018-10-07 07:37:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 070537 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 100 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 ...DISTURBANCE MEANDERING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 87.1W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), radar data from Belize indicated that the low pressure system was centered near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 87.1 West. The low has been meandering just off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula during the past few hours, but its longer-term motion is toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). The low is expected to turn northward later today, with that motion continuing for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the low or the tropical cyclone should move across the Yucatan Channel near the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight, and then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. The low is expected to become a tropical depression later today and a tropical storm by tonight. A reconnaissance plane will investigate the system this afternoon. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area tonight and on Monday. RAINFALL: The low is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. A separate area of persistent very heavy rainfall is expected along the Pacific coast of Central America and Mexico, including western Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and the state of Chiapas in Mexico. In many of these areas this rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Graphics
2018-10-07 04:40:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 07 Oct 2018 02:40:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 07 Oct 2018 03:28:29 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-10-07 04:36:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018 000 WTNT44 KNHC 070235 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018 The cloud pattern has improved in organization and surface pressures are gradually falling, but there is no evidence that the system is a tropical cyclone at this time. All indications are, however, that a tropical depression will likely form at any time soon. Strong wind shear is expected to affect the disturbance, and the SHIPS model only show a modest strengthening. This is in contrast to some global models and the HWRF, which are more aggressive in developing this system. Since the environment is marginally favorable, the NHC forecast only gradually strengthens the system at the rate of the intensity consensus IVCN. However, the forecast is highly uncertain given the solution of the global models. Since the system does not have a well-defined center, the initial motion is also uncertain. The best estimate is toward the north or 360 degrees at 6 kt. Over the next 2 or 3 days, the cyclone will be embedded within the deep southerly flow between a strong subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and a sharp mid-latitude trough advancing eastward over the United States. This flow pattern will force the system to move northward at 5 to 10 kt across the eastern Gulf of Mexico for the next 2 to 3 days. By day 4, the system should have moved inland and be weakening. It should then race northeastward farther inland across the eastern U.S. The track guidance envelope is remarkably quite tight. This increases the confidence in the track forecast primarily after the cyclone forms. Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen: 1. This system is producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of Central America, and these rains will spread over western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. 2. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm by late Sunday, and tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. The system could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week, although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 18.8N 86.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 07/1200Z 19.5N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 08/0000Z 21.0N 86.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 22.3N 86.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 23.8N 86.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 27.4N 87.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 32.0N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 12/0000Z 38.5N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen (AT4/AL142018)
2018-10-07 04:35:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON SUNDAY... ...HEAVY RAINS REACHING WESTERN CUBA... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sat Oct 6 the center of Fourteen was located near 18.8, -86.6 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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