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Post-Tropical Cyclone Lidia Graphics
2017-09-03 10:47:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Sep 2017 08:47:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Sep 2017 09:29:26 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Lidia Forecast Discussion Number 19
2017-09-03 10:43:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 03 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 030843 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Lidia Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 03 2017 Lidia has not produced any deep convection for the past 12-15 hours, which means it is no longer a tropical cyclone and has degenerated into a remnant low. Its initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt based on a Dvorak CI number of 2.0 from TAFB, but Lidia's winds should gradually decrease as it moves over the cold waters west of Baja California. Model guidance indicates that Lidia's vorticity will merge with or become absorbed by a deep-layer low to its west in the coming days, and the surface low is expected to dissipate by 48 hours. Lidia's initial motion is toward the northwest, or 315/7 kt. High pressure over the southwestern United States should steer the remnant low toward the west-northwest beginning later today, and this motion should continue until the circulation dissipates off the coast of southern California. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Lidia. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 29.6N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 03/1800Z 30.3N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/0600Z 31.2N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1800Z 32.2N 121.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Lidia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2017-09-03 10:43:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 03 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 030843 PWSEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LIDIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142017 0900 UTC SUN SEP 03 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LIDIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Lidia (EP4/EP142017)
2017-09-03 10:42:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LIDIA DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Sep 3 the center of Lidia was located near 29.6, -116.3 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Lidia Public Advisory Number 19
2017-09-03 10:42:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 03 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 030842 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Lidia Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 03 2017 ...LIDIA DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 116.3W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF PUNTA BAJA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lidia was located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 116.3 West. Lidia is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through today. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Lidia is expected to dissipate by Monday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The heavy rainfall threat associated with Lidia continues to diminish as the storm weakens. Additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are possible over the northern Baja California peninsula through today. The tropical moisture from Lidia will spread across parts of the desert Southwest this holiday weekend with an increase in scattered showers and thunderstorms from southern Nevada, western Arizona and into southern California. SURF: Residual swells generated by Lidia will gradually diminish along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or two but could still cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. $$ Forecaster Berg
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