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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (AT3/AL032021)

2021-06-18 19:43:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DISTURBANCE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS BEGINNING TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 1:00 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 the center of Three was located near 27.3, -91.1 with movement NNE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Public Advisory Number 4A

2021-06-18 19:43:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 181743 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 100 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...DISTURBANCE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS BEGINNING TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 91.1W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SSW OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida. * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6-12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 91.1 West. The system is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a north to north-northeast motion is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the system will make landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast tonight or early Saturday. A northeastward motion across the southeastern United States is likely after landfall through the weekend. Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. The circulation is gradually becoming better defined, and a tropical storm is likely to form over the north-central Gulf of Mexico later today or tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles east of the center. A NOAA C-MAN station at the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River recently reported sustained winds of 44 mph (71 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 mph (82 km/h) at an elevation of 125 feet (38 meters). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are expected across portions of the Central Gulf Coast beginning today. Considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are likely. As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, anticipate heavy rain to expand across southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, and central Georgia resulting in rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding impacts are possible. The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 8 inches across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay...2-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL...1-2 ft Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-2 ft Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA...1-2 ft Vermilion Bay...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are beginning to reach the coast within the warning area, and these winds will continue into Saturday. TORNADOES: There is a threat for a tornado or two this afternoon across coastal Louisiana, spreading overnight into Saturday across southern portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Graphics

2021-06-18 17:11:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Jun 2021 15:11:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Jun 2021 15:22:33 GMT

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Discussion Number 4

2021-06-18 17:10:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 181510 CCA TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 4...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Corrected second Key Message The cyclone is gradually becoming better organized. Deep convection has increased during the past several hours, but it remains confined to the east side of the circulation due to about 20 kt of west-southwesterly wind shear. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the system and they found a surface center a little to the east of where we previously expected it to be, but have otherwise reported generally light winds. Based on surrounding surface observations and the aircraft data, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The leading edge of the rain is just reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast, and conditions will continue to deteriorate there through tonight. The broad disturbance is moving north-northeastward at about 12 kt into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. This motion should continue during the next 12 to 24 hours, taking the center of the cyclone to the coast of southeastern Louisiana overnight or on Saturday morning. After landfall, a turn to the right across the southeast U.S. is expected when the system becomes embedded in the westerly flow on the north side of the ridge. The models are in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the previous one based on the initial position and motion. Although the system will likely become a tropical storm later today or tonight, significant strengthening is not expected due to its broad and asymmetric structure, ongoing west-southwesterly shear, and limited time over the Gulf of Mexico waters. The models are in quite good agreement overall, and the NHC intensity forecast lies near the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. It should be noted that the cyclone could be a little stronger at landfall than shown below since that is expected to occur between the 12- and 24-h forecast times. Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center and arrive well in advance of landfall. Key Messages: 1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall, considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding beginning today and continuing through the weekend along the Central Gulf coast. Flood impacts will spread northeastward into the Southern Appalachians. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later today in areas near and well to the east of the center along portions of the central Gulf Coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 26.5N 91.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 19/0000Z 28.2N 90.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 19/1200Z 30.3N 90.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/0000Z 32.1N 88.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/1200Z 33.4N 86.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 21/0000Z 34.5N 83.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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