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Post-Tropical Cyclone FIONA Forecast Discussion Number 27
2016-08-23 16:33:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 231433 TCDAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 Satellite images indicate that Fiona has lost even more organization this morning with only a weak, elongated circulation and no organized deep convection. Thus, Fiona no longer meets the requirements of a tropical cyclone and this is the last advisory. The initial wind speed is reduced to 25 kt in accordance with the latest Dvorak estimates. While wind shear is forecast to decrease, the low's structure has lost so much organization that it is not likely to take advantage of the more conducive conditions. In addition, dry mid-level air near the circulation is likely to limit any organized convection. Thus regeneration is not expected at this time. The low should move northwestward into a break in the subtropical ridge, then westward as the ridge restrengthens. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 26.1N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 24/0000Z 26.6N 66.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/1200Z 27.5N 67.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0000Z 28.4N 69.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1200Z 29.0N 69.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1200Z 29.5N 71.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Post-Tropical Cyclone FIONA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2016-08-23 16:32:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 23 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 231432 PWSAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1500 UTC TUE AUG 23 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone FIONA (AT1/AL062016)
2016-08-23 16:32:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FIONA IS FINISHED, THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Aug 23 the center of FIONA was located near 26.1, -64.5 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1014 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone FIONA Public Advisory Number 27
2016-08-23 16:32:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 231432 TCPAT1 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 ...FIONA IS FINISHED, THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.1N 64.5W ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona was located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 64.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a gradual turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The low should gradually weaken over the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Post-Tropical Cyclone FIONA Forecast Advisory Number 27
2016-08-23 16:32:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 23 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 231432 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1500 UTC TUE AUG 23 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 64.5W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 64.5W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 64.0W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.6N 66.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.5N 67.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 28.4N 69.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.0N 69.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.5N 71.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 64.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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