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Post-Tropical Cyclone Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 29
2020-10-26 03:36:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Mon Oct 26 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 260236 TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Epsilon Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 300 AM GMT Mon Oct 26 2020 Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that Epsilon no longer has the structure of a tropical cyclone. The low-level circulation is stretched out along a north-south axis, with an area of lighter winds noted near and north of the ill-defined center. Furthermore, infrared cloud tops have warmed over the past several hours as convection wanes near the center. Therefore, Epsilon has been declared a post-tropical cyclone, and this will be the last NHC advisory for the system. A partial 22Z ASCAT-A overpass showed at least 55-kt winds in the southern semicircle of the cyclone, which supports keeping the initial intensity at 60 kt. Post-tropical Epsilon is firmly embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, and the cyclone will continue racing northeastward at around 35-40 kt for the next day or so. The cyclone will remain a very powerful and dangerous storm until it is absorbed by another large extratropical low pressure system over the northeastern Atlantic. The global models remain in very good agreement with this scenario, and no notable changes were made to the official NHC forecast. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 48.6N 38.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 26/1200Z 52.1N 30.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 27/0000Z 57.0N 24.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 27/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Epsilon Graphics
2020-10-26 03:35:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Oct 2020 02:35:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Oct 2020 03:25:13 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2020-10-26 03:35:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 26 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 260235 PWSAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0300 UTC MON OCT 26 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 48.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/ZELINSKY
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)
2020-10-26 03:34:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EPSILON BECOMES A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON EPSILON... As of 3:00 AM GMT Mon Oct 26 the center of Epsilon was located near 48.6, -38.8 with movement NE at 46 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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at2al272020
Post-Tropical Cyclone Epsilon Public Advisory Number 29
2020-10-26 03:34:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Mon Oct 26 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 260234 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Epsilon Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 300 AM GMT Mon Oct 26 2020 ...EPSILON BECOMES A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON EPSILON... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...48.6N 38.8W ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM ENE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 46 MPH...74 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Epsilon was located near latitude 48.6 North, longitude 38.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 46 mph (74 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so before the post-tropical cyclone is absorbed by a large extratropical low pressure system on Monday night or early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 450 miles (720 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, portions of the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Epsilon. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky
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