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Tropical Storm Chris Graphics
2018-07-12 10:35:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Jul 2018 08:35:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Jul 2018 09:26:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm Chris Forecast Discussion Number 23
2018-07-12 10:33:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Jul 12 2018 318 WTNT43 KNHC 120833 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 500 AM AST Thu Jul 12 2018 Deep convection has decreased considerable, and the cloud pattern is taking the typical shape of cyclones during extratropical transition with the rain shield expanding toward the northwest quadrant. Only a small area of thunderstorms remain near the center. Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB are decreasing, and assuming that the cyclone has weakened since the last ASCAT pass several hours ago, the initial intensity is set at 60 kt in this advisory. Chris will be moving over much colder waters, and with the increase in shear, the cyclone is forecast to acquire extratropical characteristics as it moves very near the extreme southern portion of Newfoundland later today. After that time, the post-tropical cyclone should continue toward the northeast and become absorbed by a larger cyclone in about 3 or 4 days. Chris is now moving toward the northeast or 045 degrees at 30 kt. The cyclone is already embedded within the fast mid-latitude westerlies, and this flow should continue to steer Chris on this general track until it becomes absorbed. Track models are in excellent agreement in both direction and speed, increasing the confidence in the NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 42.1N 60.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 45.4N 55.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 13/0600Z 49.0N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 13/1800Z 52.0N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/0600Z 54.5N 30.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 15/0600Z 60.0N 20.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 16/0600Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Chris Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2018-07-12 10:32:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 12 2018 521 FONT13 KNHC 120832 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 0900 UTC THU JUL 12 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X 59(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 6 73(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ILE ST PIERRE 34 19 5(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) SABLE ISLAND 34 29 X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm Chris (AT3/AL032018)
2018-07-12 10:32:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CHRIS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Jul 12 the center of Chris was located near 42.1, -60.1 with movement NE at 35 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Chris Public Advisory Number 23
2018-07-12 10:32:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Jul 12 2018 458 WTNT33 KNHC 120832 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chris Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 500 AM AST Thu Jul 12 2018 ...CHRIS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.1N 60.1W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Chris. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chris was located near latitude 42.1 North, longitude 60.1 West. Chris is moving toward the northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 2 to 3 days. On the forecast track, the center of Chris will pass over or near extreme southeastern Newfoundland later today or tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is anticipated during the next few days, and Chris is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Even though Chris is moving away from the United States, swells generated by the storm will affect portions of the coast from North Carolina northward to New England during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward along the southern coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland overnight and into Thursday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Chris is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 millimeters) over Newfoundland, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches (150 millimeters). These rains may cause flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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