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Tropical Storm Chris Forecast Discussion Number 15
2018-07-10 10:47:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 100847 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 500 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018 The satellite presentation of Chris has improved overnight with an increase in convective banding and the recent development of a banding eye. An earlier NOAA and an overnight Air Force Reserve aircraft have noted the presence of a ragged 25 n mi wide eye, which can also be seen in NWS WSR-88D radar imagery from Morehead City, North Carolina. Despite the increase in organization the Air Force aircraft did not find winds to support hurricane strength. In fact, the plane only measured peak 850 mb flight level winds of 66 kt and SFMR winds of around 50 kt. However, there is likely some undersampling as the plane only made one pass through each quadrant. Therefore the initial remains 60 kt, which is compromise between the most recent satellite estimates and the lower reconnaissance data. The aircraft did report that the pressure has fallen to 993 mb. Recent satellite and aircraft fixes suggest that Chris may be beginning its much anticipated northeastward motion, albeit very slow at the moment. A large mid-latitude trough is forecast to drop southeastward over eastern Canada and the northeastern United States which should begin to steer Chris on a faster northeastward heading over the next day or so. As the trough deepens, Chris should accelerate further as it becomes embedded within deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the trough. Chris is forecast to pass well southeast of Nova Scotia in a couple of days, then move near or over southeastern Newfoundland in about 72 hours. The track guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario, but some speed differences remain. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies between the slower ECMWF and the various consensus aids. As Chris begins to move northeastward, it will be leaving the area of upwelled cooler waters and traversing warm SSTs during the next 24 to 36 h. This should result in strengthening and Chris is expected to become a hurricane later today. By 48 h, Chris will be moving over colder waters north of the Gulf Stream and begin interacting with a frontal system. Extratropical transition is expected to be complete in about 60-72 h, and the extratropical low is forecast to gradually weaken after passing Newfoundland. The new NHC intensity forecast is closest to the Florida State Superensemble, which is a little higher than the statistical guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 32.6N 73.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 33.1N 73.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 34.4N 71.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 36.5N 68.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 39.7N 64.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 46.5N 53.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/0600Z 50.7N 38.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/0600Z 53.0N 23.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Chris Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2018-07-10 10:47:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 10 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 100847 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 0900 UTC TUE JUL 10 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 36(55) X(55) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) X(20) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 49(49) 8(57) X(57) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18) X(18) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 47(47) X(47) X(47) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) X(19) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 59(61) X(61) X(61) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) X(30) X(30) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Chris (AT3/AL032018)
2018-07-10 10:47:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CHRIS BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY... As of 5:00 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 the center of Chris was located near 32.6, -73.9 with movement NE at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Chris Public Advisory Number 15
2018-07-10 10:47:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 100847 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chris Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 500 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018 ...CHRIS BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.6N 73.9W ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of North Carolina and in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chris was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 73.9 West. Chris is moving toward the northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a faster northeastward motion is expected today and tonight. Chris is forecast to further accelerate toward the northeast on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Chris is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane later today and some additional strengthening is expected through Wednesday night. Chris is forecast to become a strong post-tropical cyclone by Thursday night or early Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Chris are expected to increase and affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Chris Forecast Advisory Number 15
2018-07-10 10:46:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 10 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 100846 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 0900 UTC TUE JUL 10 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA AND IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 73.9W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 73.9W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 74.2W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.1N 73.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 34.4N 71.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 36.5N 68.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 39.7N 64.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 35SE 25SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 46.5N 53.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 50.7N 38.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 53.0N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 73.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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