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Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Discussion Number 10
2014-08-03 11:00:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SUN AUG 03 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 030859 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 500 AM AST SUN AUG 03 2014 The overall convective pattern of Bertha has changed little since the previous advisory. The center position has been difficult to determine and is based on a blend of the past motion and available reconissance data. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance was able to close off an 850 mb center around 0200 UTC, and a dropsonde released to the southeast of the alleged center indicated a surface wind of 210 degrees at 21 kt, which implies a west wind of at least 10 kt somewhere in the southern quadrant. These data are the basis for keeping Bertha as a tropical cyclone for this advisory. Also during the outbound leg, the aircraft found rain-contaminated SFMR surface winds of 53, 57, and 48 kt in the southeastern quadrant. After adjusting those wind speeds due to rain enhancement yields a consecutive 3-bin average speed of about 42 kt, which justifies maintaining the intensity at 40 kt. The initial motion estimate is 310/18 kt. The NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement with Bertha gradually moving northward and then northeastward around the periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge located along 28N latitude and ahead of an broad mid-level trough that is located over the eastern United States through 72 hours. After that, the cyclone is expected to become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies and accelerate northeastward and east-northeastward as it becomes extratropical or merges with a frontal system in 96-120 hours. The NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory, only slightly faster, and follows the trend of the consensus model TVCA. It is possible that Bertha could briefly open up into a wave this morning due to strong northwesterly shear of at least 25 kt. However, the environment ahead of the cyclone for about the next 48 hours is expected to become increasingly more conducive for at least gradual strengthening to occur, especially at 36-48 hours when the vertical shear is expected to decrease to near 10 kt while SSTs and mid-level moisture reach their peak. By 96 hours, extratropical transition over sub-23C SSTs and/or merger with a frontal system is expected. The ECMWF indicates frontal merger in about 72 hours, but this appears be premature based on other available model guidance and input from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center (OPC). The new NHC intensity forecast is consistent with the previous advisory, which now calls for Bertha to reach hurricane strength by 72 hours. However, this could occur sooner than indicated given that the most favorable oceanic and atmospheric conditions become juxtaposed by 48 hours or so. Intensity forecasts during the extratropical phase are based on input from OPC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 20.9N 71.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 22.8N 72.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 25.6N 74.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 28.8N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 32.0N 72.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 37.8N 66.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 42.5N 58.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/0600Z 46.0N 47.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Advisory Number 10
2014-08-03 10:59:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 03 2014 000 WTNT23 KNHC 030859 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 0900 UTC SUN AUG 03 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO ISLA SAONA * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS * THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 71.1W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 100SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 71.1W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 70.5W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 22.8N 72.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 25.6N 74.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 70SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 28.8N 74.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 70SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 32.0N 72.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 37.8N 66.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 42.5N 58.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 46.0N 47.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 71.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Storm BERTHA (AT3/AL032014)
2014-08-03 10:59:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERTHA MOVING AWAY FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL A THREAT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Aug 3 the center of BERTHA was located near 20.9, -71.1 with movement NW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Public Advisory Number 10
2014-08-03 10:59:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SUN AUG 03 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 030859 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 500 AM AST SUN AUG 03 2014 ...BERTHA MOVING AWAY FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL A THREAT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 71.1W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO ISLA SAONA * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS * THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.1 WEST. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN THE WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY LATE MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY THIS EVENING. RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS WELL THE TURKS AND CAICOS THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2014-08-03 10:59:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 03 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 030859 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 0900 UTC SUN AUG 03 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 3(31) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 7 30(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) SAN SALVADOR 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 60 8(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) MAYAGUANA 50 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PUERTO PLATA 34 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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