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Tropical Storm BERTHA Graphics
2014-08-02 17:13:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2014 14:55:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2014 15:07:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Discussion Number 7
2014-08-02 16:55:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT AUG 02 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 021454 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 1100 AM AST SAT AUG 02 2014 Bertha remains a disorganized tropical cyclone this morning, as even with the aid of Doppler radar data it is difficult to find a closed circulation. The low-level center is near the western edge of the main convective mass, which indicates the system is still affected by vertical wind shear. However, the convection has become a little better organized during the past 24 hours, and the outflow is improving over the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on a combination of continuity and Doppler radar data. The initial motion is 290/19. Bertha is approaching the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge and should turn northwest during the next 6-12 hours. A turn toward the north should occur in about 48 hours as Bertha moves between the ridge and a deep-layer trough over the southeastern United States. After that, the cyclone should turn northeastward as it enters the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance is in excellent agreement on this scenario, and the new forecast track is generally similar to the previous track. There has been a small westward shift during the first 12-24 hours, with the center now forecast to make landfall over the eastern Dominican Republic. Little change in strength is expected during the next 36 hours or so as Bertha deals with lingering shear, dry air entrainment, and passage over the mountains of Hispaniola. After that, the cyclone is expected to move into a more favorable environment that could allow strengthening. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, calling for Bertha to become a hurricane for a short time after recurvature. It is possible that passage over the Dominican Republic could cause Bertha to degenerate to a tropical wave. Should that happen, there would be a chance for regeneration when the system reaches the more favorable environment to the north. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 17.2N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 18.8N 68.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 03/1200Z 21.2N 71.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 04/0000Z 23.6N 73.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 26.4N 74.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 32.5N 71.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 37.5N 64.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 42.0N 55.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2014-08-02 16:54:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 021454 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 1500 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 21(22) 15(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 X 8( 8) 40(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GRAND TURK 34 1 58(59) 7(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) GRAND TURK 50 X 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GRAND TURK 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PUERTO PLATA 34 2 38(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) PUERTO PLATA 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO PLATA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SANTO DOMINGO 34 16 5(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) PONCE 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) SAN JUAN 34 42 X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm BERTHA (AT3/AL032014)
2014-08-02 16:54:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF BERTHA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Aug 2 the center of BERTHA was located near 17.2, -66.7 with movement WNW at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Public Advisory Number 7
2014-08-02 16:54:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT AUG 02 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 021453 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 1100 AM AST SAT AUG 02 2014 ...CENTER OF BERTHA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 66.7W ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO ISLA SAONA. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO ISLA SAONA * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS * THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...WITH THIS MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA SHOULD PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO TODAY...NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A CARIBBEAN INTEGRATED COASTAL OCEAN OBSERVING SYSTEM BUOY LOCATED SOUTH OF ST. THOMAS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 44 MPH...68 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 72 MPH...115 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY EARLY SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE COULD OCCUR IN SQUALLS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY MONDAY. RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS WELL AS THE TURKS AND CAICOS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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