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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-09-29 04:34:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 28 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 290233 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 28 2013 THE WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE ELEVENTH ONE OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT ON THE WEST SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON AS A LARGE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THEN EASTWARD LATE SUNDAY. THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABSORB OR PICK UP THE DEPRESSION...INSTEAD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE CYCLONE BEING LEFT BEHIND IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS. THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON THE STEERING FLOW WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER TROUGH THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE DEPRESSION AROUND THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAKING A CLOCKWISE LOOP AND LIES CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY BEING AFFECTED BY ABOUT 15 KT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR...WHICH HAS DISPLACED MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHEN A LITTLE. AFTER THAT TIME...HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR ARE EXPECTED TO END THE STRENGTHENING TREND AND LIKELY INDUCE WEAKENING. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS NEAR THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE SHORT TERM AND THEN LIES ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 25.2N 50.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 26.1N 49.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 27.0N 48.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 27.1N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 26.6N 46.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 26.2N 47.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 27.2N 49.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 29.5N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression ELEVEN (AT1/AL112013)
2013-09-29 04:32:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 28 the center of ELEVEN was located near 25.2, -50.2 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Public Advisory Number 1
2013-09-29 04:32:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 28 2013 000 WTNT31 KNHC 290231 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 28 2013 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 50.2W ABOUT 960 MI...1540 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A EASTWARD MOTION LATE SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2013-09-29 04:32:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 29 2013 000 FONT11 KNHC 290231 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 0300 UTC SUN SEP 29 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 3 5 8 12 12 21 TROP DEPRESSION 31 20 22 25 32 31 36 TROPICAL STORM 67 72 66 59 51 52 42 HURRICANE 1 5 6 9 5 5 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 5 5 8 5 5 2 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 1 1 X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 35KT 35KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Forecast Advisory Number 1
2013-09-29 04:31:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 29 2013 000 WTNT21 KNHC 290231 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 0300 UTC SUN SEP 29 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 50.2W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 50.2W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 50.4W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 26.1N 49.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.0N 48.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 27.1N 47.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.6N 46.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.2N 47.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 27.2N 49.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 29.5N 47.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 50.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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