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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-08-12 11:00:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 120900 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2020 After an earlier burst of deep convection near the center and in the western semicircle of the circulation, overall thunderstorm activity has decreased somewhat. This is likely due to the entrainment of mid-/upper-level dry air as noted in GOES-16 high-resolution mid- and upper-level water vapor imagery, in conjunction with some modest southeasterly vertical wind shear. The latest subjective and objective Dvorak satellite classifications from TAFB/SAB and UW-CIMSS ADT of 30 kt and 33 kt, respectively, support maintaining an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression continues moving a little north of due west, or 280/13 kt. This general motion is expected to continue through tonight due to easterly flow on the south side of a strong subtropical ridge situated to the north of the cyclone. By 24 h, all of the global models are in decent agreement that a slight weakness will develop within the ridge, allowing the cyclone to turn more toward the west-northwest and then continue that motion through the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly packed about the previous forecast track, so no significant track changes were made. The aforementioned unfavorable conditions of dry air entrainment and southeasterly shear are expected to give way to more conducive environmental conditions by 24 h when the cyclone will begin to move underneath the center of a synoptic-scale upper-level anticyclone. This will result in the shear decreasing to near zero, along with a pronounced improvement in the upper-level outflow pattern. The much lower shear conditions should also reduce the amount of dry air entrainment, while allowing for some moistening of the surrounding environment to occur. These more favorable conditions are expected to persist through at least the 60-h period, and thus slow but steady strengthening is forecast during that time. By 72 h and beyond, the global models and regional models show the system moving out from underneath the positive influence of the upper-level anticyclone, encountering moderate southerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear, which is expected to induce gradual weakening. It should be noted that during the 48-60 h period when the shear will be the lowest and sea-surface temperatures will be near 28.5C, there is a narrow window of opportunity where the intensity could peak higher than what is currently indicated. The new NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, and is slightly higher than the consensus intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA due to anticipation of the very favorable low-shear conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 12.2N 42.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 12.6N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 13.2N 47.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 14.0N 49.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 15.1N 52.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 16.3N 54.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 17.6N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 20.1N 61.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 22.9N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Eleven Graphics
2020-08-12 10:50:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Aug 2020 08:50:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Aug 2020 09:24:29 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-08-12 10:48:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 120848 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0900 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112020)
2020-08-12 10:48:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Aug 12 the center of Eleven was located near 12.2, -42.9 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 3
2020-08-12 10:48:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 120848 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2020 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.2N 42.9W ABOUT 1405 MI...2265 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 42.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A motion toward the west-northwest at a similar forward speed is forecast to begin tonight and continue through the rest of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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