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Hurricane Lane Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2018-08-17 22:32:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 551 FOPZ14 KNHC 172032 PWSEP4 HURRICANE LANE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142018 2100 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 140W 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 140W 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 33(76) 1(77) X(77) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 30(38) X(38) X(38) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) X(18) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 39(76) 1(77) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 32(41) 2(43) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 1(23) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 8(31) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 32(50) 15N 155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 15N 155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 18N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18N 156W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Hurricane Lane Forecast Advisory Number 12
2018-08-17 22:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 178 WTPZ24 KNHC 172032 TCMEP4 HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142018 2100 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 134.1W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 134.1W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 133.6W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 11.7N 136.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 12.2N 139.3W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 12.9N 141.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.5N 144.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.4N 148.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 14.9N 152.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 15.3N 156.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 134.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane Lane Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-08-17 17:26:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018 190 WTPZ44 KNHC 171525 CCA TCDEP4 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 11...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018 Lane's cloud pattern has improved significantly this morning, and the cyclone is currently undergoing rapid intensification. A warming ragged eye is now evident in GOES-15/16 IR BD-curve enhancement, and a white curved band with cold tops of -70 to -75C wraps about 90% around the cyclone's circulation. The Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the objective analysis support an increase of the wind speed to 85 kt for this advisory. Lane appears poised for further rapid strengthening during the next 24 hours. Impressive outflow in all quadrants, warm SSTs, and the absence of earlier noted dry air intrusion all point to this scenario. The peak intensity based on the hurricane models and the statistical guidance is forecast to be within the next 24-36 hours. Afterward, the thermodynamic environment looks a little less conducive and the large-scale models as well as the statistical intensity guidance agree that increasing westerly vertical shear will induce a slow weakening trend. The official forecast is above the guidance during the first 36 hours, but is close to the HMON hurricane model, and is hedged toward a blend of the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models through the remaining portion of the forecast. The initial motion is estimated to be nearly due west, or 275/14 kt. Lane should continue to move south of a subtropical ridge in either a westward or west-northwestward direction through the entire forecast period. The NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous one with just a slight adjustment to the south, and is very close to the TVCN and NOAA HCCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 11.2N 132.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 11.6N 135.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 12.1N 137.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 12.6N 140.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 13.3N 143.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 14.3N 147.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 14.8N 151.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 15.3N 155.9W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Lane Graphics
2018-08-17 16:57:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 17 Aug 2018 14:57:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 17 Aug 2018 15:28:17 GMT
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Hurricane Lane Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2018-08-17 16:53:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 257 FOPZ14 KNHC 171453 PWSEP4 HURRICANE LANE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142018 1500 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 8 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 10N 140W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 140W 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 5(19) 1(20) 1(21) X(21) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 52(71) 2(73) X(73) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 34(37) 1(38) X(38) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 1(18) X(18) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 43(67) 4(71) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 30(36) 3(39) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 2(21) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 11(32) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 28(45) 15N 155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 15N 155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 18N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18N 156W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SOUTH POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BUOY 51002 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 15N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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