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Tropical Storm Lane Graphics
2018-08-16 16:57:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 14:57:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 14:57:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm Lane Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-08-16 16:56:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018 858 WTPZ44 KNHC 161456 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018 Lane appears to be intensifying this morning, with a more symmetric presentation on satellite imagery and pulsing deep convection near the center. A recent SSMI/S microwave pass indicates that an inner core is trying to form, although it isn't well defined yet. The current intensity estimates continue to display a large spread, ranging from the overnight scatterometer data at low-end tropical- storm strength, from hurricane strength in the TAFB Dvorak estimate. The initial wind speed is set to 50 kt with the increased organization, and this remains a low confidence estimate. While so far Lane has only been slowly intensifying, the large-scale environment appears favorable for more significant intensification to occur soon, especially with current signs of a primitive inner core. Thus the wind speed forecast will maintain the quick strengthening from the previous forecast, and there remains a significant chance that rapid intensification will occur during the next few days. The biggest change from yesterday is that more of the global models are indicating that westerly shear could affect Lane in the central Pacific, so more weakening is shown at day 5. Otherwise, the new NHC intensity forecast is very close to the previous one and is on the higher side of the guidance. The initial motion estimate is 275/11. The subtropical ridge to the north of Lane should continue to be the dominant steering mechanism, forcing the tropical cyclone to move westward or west-northwestward for the next several days. While the model spread is low in the short range, it notably increases by days 4/5. The GFS-based guidance is showing Lane move slower than the rest of the guidance, which allows the eastern periphery of the ridge to erode due to an inverted mid-level trough, and consequently a more poleward motion of the cyclone. The ECMWF and UKMET show Lane moving faster and basically missing any influence of that trough, causing the storm to move faster to the west. There are no strong signals pointing me to either solution, so the official forecast follows the trend of the consensus, which ends up slightly west of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 10.6N 127.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 10.8N 129.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 11.2N 132.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 11.7N 134.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 12.2N 137.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 13.5N 142.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 14.7N 147.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 15.3N 151.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Storm Lane (EP4/EP142018)
2018-08-16 16:55:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LANE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 16 the center of Lane was located near 10.6, -127.6 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lane Public Advisory Number 7
2018-08-16 16:55:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018 403 WTPZ34 KNHC 161455 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lane Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018 ...LANE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.6N 127.6W ABOUT 1445 MI...2325 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1935 MI...3115 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lane was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 127.6 West. Lane is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Lane is forecast to become a hurricane by tomorrow and could become a major hurricane over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Lane Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2018-08-16 16:55:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 16 2018 386 FOPZ14 KNHC 161455 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM LANE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142018 1500 UTC THU AUG 16 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 3 24(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 10N 130W 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 10N 130W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 10N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 22(23) 6(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 10N 135W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 10N 135W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 13(19) X(19) X(19) 10N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 38(44) 1(45) 1(46) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 50(69) 3(72) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 38(41) 2(43) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 2(26) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 36(56) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 15N 155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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