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Subtropical Storm Alberto Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

2018-05-28 11:51:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 28 May 2018 09:51:25 GMT

Subtropical Storm Alberto Graphics

2018-05-28 10:45:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 May 2018 08:45:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 May 2018 08:45:04 GMT

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Subtropical Storm Alberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

2018-05-28 10:44:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON MAY 28 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 280844 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018 0900 UTC MON MAY 28 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 13 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ST MARKS FL 34 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) APALACHICOLA 34 54 X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) GFMX 290N 850W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 34 94 X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) PANAMA CITY FL 50 17 X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 39 9(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBUS GA 34 5 7(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 3 9(12) 12(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MONTGOMERY AL 34 8 40(48) 2(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 90 5(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) WHITING FLD FL 50 4 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PENSACOLA FL 34 91 2(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) PENSACOLA FL 50 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOBILE AL 34 18 3(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GULFPORT MS 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) STENNIS MS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Discussion Number 13

2018-05-28 10:44:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 280844 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 400 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018 Alberto is holding its strength this morning. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigated the cyclone a few hours ago and found winds to the north of the center that still support an intensity of about 55 kt. The aircraft data and a NOAA buoy near the center also indicate that the minimum pressure has dropped a little more to 990 mb. Deep convection remains patchy, however, due to pronounced dry slots, but Doppler radar images do show some convective bands moving onshore over the Florida Panhandle. Given the short period of time before Alberto makes landfall, its overall ragged appearance, and proximity to dry air, little change in strength is expected before the subtropical storm reaches the coast this afternoon. Once Alberto is inland, land interaction should cause steady weakening to a subtropical depression tonight or early Tuesday and to a remnant low by Tuesday afternoon. The global models show the low being absorbed by a frontal system over the Great Lakes region by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one, and is in line with the majority of the guidance. The center of Alberto has wobbled to the left and slowed down significantly during the past 6 hours, but a longer-term motion is northwestward, or 315 degrees, at 6 kt. A north-northwestward to northward motion along the western periphery of a mid-level ridge is expected during the next few days taking Alberto, or its remnants, over the Florida Panhandle and then well inland over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. A turn to the northeast is predicted before Alberto's remnants are absorbed by the above-mentioned frontal system. The models are in fairly good agreement, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC track prediction. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall will lead to a significant risk of flash flooding across the Florida Panhandle, much of Alabama, and western Georgia through tonight, spreading northward into northern Georgia, the western Carolinas, and Tennessee on Tuesday. A risk of flooding and flash flooding will continue over western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida today. 2. Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the eastern Gulf Coast today, including areas well east of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge watch area are encouraged to follow guidance given by their local government officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the tropical storm warning area today. 4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 28.6N 86.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 30.1N 86.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 32.1N 86.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/1800Z 34.6N 87.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0600Z 37.4N 87.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0600Z 43.0N 86.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z 48.0N 81.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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