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Subtropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-08-15 17:01:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 15 2018 805 WTNT45 KNHC 151501 CCA TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 2...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 15 2018 Convection associated with the subtropical cyclone became better organized after the release of the previous advisory, but cloud tops have warmed recently with the convection becoming somewhat fragmented. An Hebert-Poteat subtropical classification of T2.5 from TAFB suggests that they system is producing gale-force winds, and recent scatterometer data that passed over the far eastern portion of the circulation revealed 30-kt winds. Since the instrument missed the radius of maximum winds, it is assumed that stronger winds exist over the eastern portion of the circulation, and the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt, making the system a subtropical storm. Ernesto has about 24 hours over marginally warm SSTs and in a low- shear environment in which to strengthen. After that time, the cyclone will be moving over much colder water which should cause it to become post-tropical within 48 hours. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to merge with a frontal zone associated with a larger extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic in 3 to 4 days. The cyclone is moving northward at about 6 kt. A mid-level trough that is moving off the east coast of the United States should cause Ernesto to turn north-northeastward later today, and the cyclone is forecast to accelerate northeastward by late Thursday as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. The dynamical model guidance continues to be in good agreement, and the new NHC track forecast remains in the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 38.1N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 39.3N 45.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 41.3N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 43.6N 40.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 46.4N 35.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 18/1200Z 52.3N 21.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 19/1200Z...MERGED WITH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Subtropical Storm Ernesto Graphics
2018-08-15 16:53:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 15 Aug 2018 14:53:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 15 Aug 2018 14:53:47 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2018-08-15 16:52:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 15 2018 784 FONT15 KNHC 151452 PWSAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018 1500 UTC WED AUG 15 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Subtropical Storm Ernesto (AT5/AL052018)
2018-08-15 16:51:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 15 the center of Ernesto was located near 38.1, -46.0 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Ernesto Public Advisory Number 2
2018-08-15 16:51:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 15 2018 591 WTNT35 KNHC 151451 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 15 2018 ...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.1N 46.0W ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 38.1 North, longitude 46.0 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later today, and a faster northeastward motion is expected by late Thursday and should continue through early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. The system is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Thursday night or early Friday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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