je.st
news
Tag: sixteen
Tropical Depression Sixteen Graphics
2017-10-05 04:54:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Oct 2017 02:54:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Oct 2017 02:54:07 GMT
Tags: graphics
tropical
depression
sixteen
Tropical Depression Sixteen Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-10-05 04:48:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 050248 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 There have been some structural changes to the depression during the past few hours. Inner-core convection began developing just after the issuance of the previous advisory, and Colombian radar images from San Andres are now showing a well-defined convective band to the east and southeast of the center. Despite these changes, Dvorak satellite estimates remain T2.0 from TAFB and SAB, so the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. The depression probably only has another 12 hours or so before its center moves inland over northeastern Nicaragua, but it is still expected to reach tropical storm strength before that happens. Once the center re-emerges over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea a little after 24 hours from now, high oceanic heat content and low shear should contribute to strengthening. Despite these favorable conditions, the amount of strengthening will be unclear until we know how well the inner core survives crossing over Nicaragua and Honduras. Strengthening is likely to continue through at least day 3 up until the time the cyclone reaches the central Gulf of Mexico. After day 3, there are some indications that higher shear and/or cooler shelf waters over the northern Gulf of Mexico could lead to some weakening, but that scenario is by no means a definite one at this time. Needless to say, there continues to be greater-than-normal uncertainty in the intensity forecast. The updated NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted downward just a bit through day 3 to follow an overall shift in the guidance, although it should be noted that the official forecast still lies above the normally skillful HCCA model. If the intensity forecast is complex, the track forecast is not much easier. For the first 48 hours, the models appear split on how the depression will interact with a disturbance currently located near the Straits of Florida. For example, the ECMWF model shows some interaction with the disturbance's low-level vorticity, which swings the depression more to the east on the right side of the guidance envelope. The GFS, on the other hand, shows no such interaction and has the cyclone on the western side of the guidance envelope. This setup has significant downstream effects after 48 hours because it keeps the ECMWF on an eastern route and the GFS on a western route as the cyclone heads toward the U.S. Gulf coast. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly westward, although it is still not as far west as the consensus aids or the HCCA model. Interestingly, although the ECMWF ensemble mean is close to the operational run on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, there is a high density of members to the left close to the consensus aids, which lends additional support for the westward adjustment. A G-IV mission and Florida special soundings will begin tomorrow to better determine the synoptic steering flow around the cyclone. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras through early Friday. Heavy rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, and Panama through Friday night. 2. The system could be near hurricane intensity when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday or Saturday, bringing direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall, and a hurricane watch has been issued for a portion of this area. 3. The system is forecast to continue strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico and could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane this weekend, with direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. However, it is too early to specify the timing, location, or magnitude of these impacts. Residents along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida should monitor the progress of this system for the next several days and heed any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 12.8N 82.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 13.5N 83.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 15.1N 83.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/1200Z 17.6N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 20.2N 86.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 25.5N 88.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 30.5N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/0000Z 36.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Summary for Tropical Depression Sixteen (AT1/AL162017)
2017-10-05 04:48:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION HEADING TOWARD THE NICARAGUA COAST... ...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 the center of Sixteen was located near 12.8, -82.7 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
sixteen
Tropical Depression Sixteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2017-10-05 04:48:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 05 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 050248 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017 0300 UTC THU OCT 05 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 6(24) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 5(24) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 5(28) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) 5(30) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) 6(34) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 7(22) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 7(27) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 26(31) 6(37) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 27(33) 5(38) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 27(41) 5(46) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 3(17) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 27(33) 5(38) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 27(34) 3(37) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) 3(34) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 25(39) 2(41) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 24(51) 2(53) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) 1(21) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 3(20) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 22(30) 3(33) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 19(36) 1(37) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 2(24) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) 2(27) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 2(18) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 2(20) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 1(17) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) X(16) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 14(43) 1(44) X(44) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 11 15(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 14(35) X(35) X(35) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Tropical Depression Sixteen Public Advisory Number 3
2017-10-05 04:48:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 050248 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 ...DEPRESSION HEADING TOWARD THE NICARAGUA COAST... ...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 82.7W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WNW OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12-24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the depression. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 82.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through early Thursday. A north-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast to begin on Thursday and continue through late Friday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression should move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras on Thursday and then over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night and Friday. The center is expected to approach the coast of the Yucatan peninsula late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm before it moves inland over northeastern Nicaragua tomorrow. Additional strengthening is likely over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night and Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday night: Nicaragua...15 to 20 inches, isolated 30 inches Costa Rica and Panama...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches Honduras...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to start in the warning area in Nicaragua early on Thursday, and spread into Honduras late Thursday. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Mexico beginning late Friday. SURF: Swells generated by the cyclone are affecting portions of the coast of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas around the northwestern Caribbean later this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Sites : [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] next »