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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2019-10-18 16:49:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 181449 PWSAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 1500 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) X(15) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 23(34) X(34) X(34) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 13(30) X(30) X(30) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 18(39) X(39) X(39) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 15(38) X(38) X(38) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 8(33) X(33) X(33) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 6(33) X(33) X(33) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 5(41) X(41) X(41) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 36(39) 3(42) X(42) X(42) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 31(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 28(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 21(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 7(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 2( 2) 25(27) 12(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 5( 5) 22(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 8( 8) 36(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 8( 8) 15(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 6( 6) 21(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 11(11) 17(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) THE VILLAGES 34 X 7( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ORLANDO FL 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TAMPA FL 34 X 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CEDAR KEY FL 34 3 27(30) 6(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 42(42) 27(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ST MARKS FL 34 1 45(46) 23(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) ST MARKS FL 50 X 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) APALACHICOLA 34 17 68(85) 2(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) APALACHICOLA 50 X 15(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) APALACHICOLA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 30 54(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 18 66(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X 16(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 14 41(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 1 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PENSACOLA FL 34 1 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 870W 34 82 12(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) GFMX 290N 870W 50 4 21(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 77 X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) GFMX 280N 890W 50 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Public Advisory Number 5
2019-10-18 16:49:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 181449 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE SYSTEM STRONGER... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.9N 90.0W ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown Florida * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 90.0 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday, followed by a turn toward the east-northeast by early Monday. On the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf Coast later today and tonight and move inland across portions of the southeastern United States on Saturday and Sunday. The system is forecast to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina by late Sunday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected later today, with weakening forecast after the system moves inland. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical or subtropical storm later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km), mainly to the northeast and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area by later today and this evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Gale-force winds are likely along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States by Saturday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible tonight and early Saturday near the Florida Gulf Coast from the central panhandle to the western peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Advisory Number 5
2019-10-18 16:47:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 181446 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 1500 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO CLEARWATER BEACH FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 90.0W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 90.0W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 91.2W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 27.8N 88.0W...TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 29.9N 85.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 32.2N 82.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 34.4N 78.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...130NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 37.0N 71.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 37.0N 69.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 90.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen (AT1/AL162019)
2019-10-18 13:34:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... As of 7:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 the center of Sixteen was located near 25.1, -91.2 with movement NE at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Public Advisory Number 4A
2019-10-18 13:34:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 181134 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 700 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.1N 91.2W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown Florida * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 91.2 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf Coast later today and tonight, and then move inland over portions of the southeastern United States on Saturday and Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or subtropical storm today, and slow strengthening is anticipated until the system moves inland. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is on its way to investigate the disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to the north and east of the possible center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Gale-force winds are possible along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States by Saturday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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