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Hurricane Hector Graphics
2018-08-06 04:34:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 06 Aug 2018 02:34:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 06 Aug 2018 03:26:03 GMT
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Hurricane Hector Forecast Discussion Number 23
2018-08-06 04:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018 225 WTPZ45 KNHC 060233 TCDEP5 Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018 Hector has changed little in organization since the previous special advisory, and the various satellite intensity estimates are in the 115-125 kt range. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 120 kt. The forecast track takes the cyclone over an area of cooler water between 24-60 h and into a drier air mass after 60 h, and based on this the intensity forecast continues the trend of the previous forecast in showing a gradual weakening through the forecast period. There are two caveats to this forecast, however. The first is that Hector will move over warmer water after 60 h, and the HWRF amd LGEM models are suggesting re-intensification could occur from 96-120 h. Second, the environment of light easterly shear and moderate sea surface temperatures could allow Hector to evolve into an annular hurricane, which would cause it to stay more intense than the guidance and the official forecast are indicating. The hurricane is starting a northward nudge that the track models have been advertising, and the initial motion is now 280/12. The subtropical ridge to the north of Hector should steer it west-northwestward with an increase in forward speed for the next 24-36 h, followed by a more westerly motion to the south of the Hawaiian Islands for the remainder of the forecast period. Track guidance has become less divergent since yesterday, and the new forecast track lies near the center of the track guidance envelope. While the official forecast track continues to lie south of the Hawaiian Islands, only a slight deviation to the north of the forecast track would significantly increase potential impacts on the Hawaiian Islands. Now is a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian Islands to ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. For additional information on any potential local impacts from Hector in Hawaii, please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Honolulu at: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl . This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Hector. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 11 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc . FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 14.7N 139.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 15.1N 141.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 15.8N 144.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 16.2N 147.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 16.6N 150.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 17.0N 156.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 17.0N 162.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 17.5N 168.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Hector Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2018-08-06 04:32:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 06 2018 602 FOPZ15 KNHC 060232 PWSEP5 HURRICANE HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 0300 UTC MON AUG 06 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 140W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 140W 64 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) 15N 145W 34 X 61(61) 23(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) 15N 145W 50 X 10(10) 26(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 15N 145W 64 X 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 47(51) 3(54) X(54) X(54) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 63(84) X(84) X(84) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 49(52) X(52) X(52) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) X(18) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 2(42) X(42) 15N 155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 67(68) 5(73) X(73) 18N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 6(41) X(41) 18N 156W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 4(21) X(21) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) 4(49) X(49) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) SOUTH POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 4(27) X(27) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 51(51) 30(81) 1(82) BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 36(51) X(51) BUOY 51002 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) X(27) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 15N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 1(38) 15N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) 15N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 1(25) 20N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 20N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 39(41) 2(43) BUOY 51003 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) BUOY 51003 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) NIHOA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 22N 164W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) NECKER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 22(34) 15N 165W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 15N 165W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 19(29) 20N 165W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 20N 165W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) JOHNSTON ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) JOHNSTON ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) JOHNSTON ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 170W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 15N 170W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 170W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 170W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 20N 170W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 170W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane Hector (EP5/EP102018)
2018-08-06 04:32:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HECTOR ABOUT TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 5 the center of Hector was located near 14.7, -139.2 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 947 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.
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Hurricane Hector Public Advisory Number 23
2018-08-06 04:32:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018 516 WTPZ35 KNHC 060232 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Hector Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018 ...HECTOR ABOUT TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 139.2W ABOUT 1130 MI...1820 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Hector. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hector was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 139.2 West. Hector is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest at an increased forward speed is expected through Monday night, followed by a westward motion Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Hector will cross into the central Pacific basin during the next several hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Hector is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected tonight and Monday. After that, gradual weakening is forecast Monday night through Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Hector. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 11 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc. $$ Forecaster Beven
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