je.st
news
Tag: narda
Tropical Storm Narda Graphics
2019-10-01 04:53:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 02:53:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 02:53:54 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
narda
Tropical Storm Narda Forecast Discussion Number 11
2019-10-01 04:49:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010249 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Passive microwave satellite imagery, especially a recent 2326 UTC SSMI/S pass, continue to show that a small mid-level eye feature has remained close to the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico since the previous advisory, with the center now located just inland near Los Mochis. Earlier scatterometer surface wind data indicated winds to near 40 kt about 40 n mi south of the center, and extrapolation of the position of those winds would place them near the coast now, and justifies lowering the current intensity to 40 kt. Deep convection near the center has also decreased markedly over the past few hours, further suggesting that the intensity has likely decreased. Narda has continued moving northwestward at an unusually fast forward speed, or 325/17 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. The latest model guidance remains in excellent agreement on Narda maintaining a northwestward trajectory around the southwestern periphery of a large deep-layer ridge for the next 48 hours, with the center remaining inland or very near the coast during that time. The new NHC forecast track is essentially on top of the previous advisory track, and lies close to an average of the tightly packed consensus model tracks. Now that Narda's center has moved inland again over the mountainous terrain of coastal Mainland Mexico, steady weakening is expected during the next 48 hours. However, tropical-storm-force winds are still possible, especially due to funneling along some of the concave-shaped coastlines near Huatabampito and Guaymas before Narda weakens to a depression in 24 hours or so. Terrain interaction should result in the small cyclone becoming a remnant low or dissipating by 48 hours. The main threat posed by Narda continues to be very heavy rainfall, due to large amounts of moisture being advected northward and northeastward over Mexico on the eastern side of the cyclone's circulation. These rains, which could total as much as 15 inches in a few locations, will result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Furthermore, the very humid mid- and upper-level remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northeastward across northern Mexico and into portions of the U.S. Southern and Central Plains through at least Wednesday, enhancing the threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding in these areas. For additional information, please see excessive rainfall products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 25.7N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 01/1200Z 26.9N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER NEAR COAST 24H 02/0000Z 28.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 02/1200Z 29.4N 111.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm Narda (EP1/EP162019)
2019-10-01 04:49:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NARDA MAKES A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES... As of 9:00 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 the center of Narda was located near 25.7, -109.0 with movement NW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
narda
Tropical Storm Narda Public Advisory Number 11
2019-10-01 04:49:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 010248 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 ...NARDA MAKES A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 109.0W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning south of Altata to San Blas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Altata to Guaymas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), data from satellites and surface observations indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located inland near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 109.0 West. Narda is moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Narda will move near or along the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Narda is expected to become a tropical depression by Tuesday evening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. Earlier this evening, a wind gust to at least 39 mph (63 km/h) was measured by a private weather observing site in Culiacan Ejido Canan, Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue to spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning area through Tuesday. RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Sinaloa...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15 inches. Chihuahua and western Durango...1 to 3 inches. Sonora...1 to 2 inches. Baja California Sur...Up to 1 inch. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. Moisture from Narda will spread northeastward across portions of the U.S. Southern Plains for the next few days, enhancing rainfall and the threat for flash flooding in those areas. For additional information, please see excessive rainfall products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Narda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2019-10-01 04:49:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 010248 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HERMOSILLO 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BAHIA KINO 34 X 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BAHIA KINO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X 23(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) GUAYMAS 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 21 10(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) LOS MOCHIS 34 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Sites : [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] next »