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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Public Advisory Number 2A

2019-10-18 01:52:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 172352 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 700 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 ...DISTURBANCE NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 94.6W ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to Aucilla River Florida * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Aucilla River to Yankeetown Florida A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 94.6 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf Coast Friday and Friday night and then move over portions of the southeastern United States on Saturday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or subtropical storm later tonight or on Friday, with slow strengthening then expected through Friday night. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) mainly to the southwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Friday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Gale-force winds are possible along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States by Saturday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Graphics

2019-10-18 01:52:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 Oct 2019 23:52:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 Oct 2019 21:24:44 GMT

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

2019-10-17 23:42:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Thu, 17 Oct 2019 21:42:29 GMT

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Discussion Number 2

2019-10-17 22:51:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 172045 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 400 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 The complicated weather situation over the Gulf of Mexico described in the previous advisory continues to evolve. Recent scatterometer data shows that the tropical disturbance in the southwestern Gulf has a circulation elongated north-northeast to south-southwest, with winds of 30-35 kt occurring in the southwestern quadrant. However, the system currently has neither sufficient convection or a well-enough defined center to be designated a tropical or subtropical cyclone. The disturbance remains in close proximity to a mid- to upper-level low moving across southern Texas and northeastern Mexico and a frontal system over the northern and northwestern Gulf. One change from the previous global model guidance is the the ECMWF and GFS have backed off of their forecasts of a separate baroclinic low to the north of the disturbance. Instead, the global models are in reasonable agreement that the disturbance, along with whatever vorticity centers form along the front, will be part of a large low pressure area that will affect portions of the northern Gulf coast and the southeastern United States. The initial motion of the disturbance is now 020/8. There is little change in the forecast track philosophy, the track guidance, or the NHC forecast track. The system should soon turn northeastward in the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the track model guidance agrees on a continued northeastward motion through at least 72 h. The forecast track, which is in best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model, brings the system across the southeastern United States between 36-72 h, and then has it moving into the Atlantic east of the mid-Atlantic States. Gradual strengthening is expected as strong upper-level divergence caused by the trough partly prevails over strong vertical shear. Based on this, the intensity forecast again calls for gradual strengthening until landfall in agreement with the global model forecasts. While it remains unlikely that the system will develop into a classical tropical cyclone, the ECMWF and GFS models suggest enough organized convection will develop before landfall to make the system a tropical or subtropical cyclone. After landfall, the cyclone is forecast to become fully extratropical and gradually weaken. Regardless of the exact evolution, portions of the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico will experience strong winds, locally heavy rains, and storm surge Friday and Saturday. Similar impacts are expected across portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States Saturday and Sunday. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of up to 5 feet above ground level beginning Friday along the Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 2. Tropical storm force winds are likely by Friday afternoon along portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, where tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area, especially east of the center. 3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the central and eastern Gulf Coast, mainly Friday and Friday night. Since soils across the southeast are dry, the risk of flash flooding will be confined to the immediate coast where heavier rainfall is possible. 4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS offices, since the system is expected to lose any tropical characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 22.9N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 18/0600Z 24.5N 92.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 18/1800Z 26.9N 89.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 29.3N 86.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 31.4N 84.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/1800Z 35.6N 76.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/1800Z 37.5N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/1800Z 38.5N 66.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number discussion potential tropical

Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen (AT1/AL162019)

2019-10-17 22:51:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS... ...EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY... As of 4:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 the center of Sixteen was located near 22.9, -95.2 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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