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Tropical Storm Sebastien Graphics
2019-11-23 21:39:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 23 Nov 2019 20:39:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 23 Nov 2019 21:24:19 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Discussion Number 18
2019-11-23 21:38:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Nov 23 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 232038 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 500 PM AST Sat Nov 23 2019 Sebastien's cloud pattern is beginning to resemble that of an extratropical cyclone, with a shield of moderately cold cloud tops extending well to the north of the cyclone's surface center. That said, Sebastien is still producing enough convection near its center to be considered a tropical cyclone for now. ASCAT-B data that arrived shortly after the last advisory was issued had support for 55 kt and that is the basis for the initial intensity. The ASCAT data also showed that the surface wind circulation of Sebastien is elongated but still closed. Sebastien is accelerating northeastward, with an initial motion of 045/26 kt. Most of the 12Z models show a significantly faster northeastward track for the tropical storm and the official forecast has been adjusted accordingly. However, the NHC forecast is slower than the model consensus and additional large changes may be required in the next advisory. Confidence in the track forecast remains low due to the continued lack of run-to-run consistency amongst the models. With regard to intensity, a majority of the guidance calls for little change in strength since it seems that baroclinic forcing will at least offset the negative influences of decreasing SSTs and high shear during the next day or two. The NHC intensity forecast is very near the consensus. Cyclone phase-space diagrams derived from the GFS and ECMWF indicate that extratropical transition could occur by Sunday afternoon, but the NHC forecast is slightly more conservative. The reality is that Sebastien could become extratropical or open into a trough at nearly any time between this evening and early next week. Sebastien or its remnants are expected to bring gusty winds and rain to the Azores beginning on Sunday. Please see products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere (IPMA) for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 32.4N 45.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 35.0N 41.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 37.8N 35.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 40.9N 27.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 25/1800Z 44.8N 19.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2019-11-23 21:37:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 23 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 232037 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 2100 UTC SAT NOV 23 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X 3( 3) 74(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) 26(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Sebastien (AT5/AL202019)
2019-11-23 21:37:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SEBASTIEN GALLOPING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Nov 23 the center of Sebastien was located near 32.4, -45.4 with movement NE at 28 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Public Advisory Number 18
2019-11-23 21:37:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Nov 23 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 232037 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sebastien Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 500 PM AST Sat Nov 23 2019 ...SEBASTIEN GALLOPING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.4N 45.4W ABOUT 1105 MI...1780 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien was located near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 45.4 West. Sebastien is moving quickly toward the northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h). A fast northeastward motion is expected for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in the maximum winds is expected during the next couple of days. Sebastien is forecast to become post-tropical on Sunday and dissipate early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND AND RAIN: Regardless of its status, Sebastien or its remnants are expected to bring gusty winds and rain to the Azores beginning Sunday. Please see products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere (IPMA) for more information. SURF: Swells generated by Sebastien are expected to reach the Azores early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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