je.st
news
Tag: irwin
Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 20
2017-07-27 10:55:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 270855 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 Overall, Irwin's cloud pattern has change little during the past several hours. An earlier 0218 UTC SSMIS microwave pass shows a considerable structural vertical tilt toward the northwest due to the impinging southeasterly shear produced by Hilary to the east. Experimental GOES-16 channel 9 mid-level water vapor imagery indicates drier air intruding in the northeast quadrant of Irwin with subsequent convective erosion in that portion of the cloud canopy. The Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB support maintaining the initial intensity at 50 kt for this advisory. The dynamical intensity models indicate that the moderate southeasterly shear will back more toward the northeast during the next 12-24 hours as Hilary invades from the northeast. Beyond the 24 hour period, the intensity forecast becomes a bit problematic. The hurricane models, the HFIP Corrected Consensus, the Florida State Superensemble, and the GFS/ECMWF global models all show Irwin strengthening back into a hurricane under much improved diffluent flow aloft. The statistical-dynamical intensity models, on the other hand, show only slight strengthening. As a compromise for this forecast package, the official forecast shows modest strengthening, then gradual weakening after 48 hours. The initial motion is estimated to be west-southwestward, or 255/05 kt. As Hilary continues to moves closer and passes to the north of Irwin, a significant reduction in Irwin's forward speed, essentially drifting in a cyclonic fashion, is expected during the next 24-36 hours. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to accelerate northward and then northwestward up the eastern and northern portion of Hilary's peripheral circulation. The deterministic guidance remains in fair agreement with this synoptic pattern scenario, and the NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and is based on a blend of the TVCX and HCCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 14.7N 123.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 14.6N 124.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 14.5N 124.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 14.3N 124.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 14.7N 124.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 17.8N 124.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 31/0600Z 22.0N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 24.5N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Irwin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2017-07-27 10:54:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 27 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 270854 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0900 UTC THU JUL 27 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 10N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 125W 34 66 14(80) 10(90) 4(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 15N 125W 50 4 15(19) 13(32) 10(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) 15N 125W 64 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 22(35) 1(36) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Summary for Tropical Storm Irwin (EP5/EP102017)
2017-07-27 10:54:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...IRWIN DRIFTING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Jul 27 the center of Irwin was located near 14.7, -123.8 with movement WSW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
irwin
Tropical Storm Irwin Public Advisory Number 20
2017-07-27 10:54:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 270854 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 ...IRWIN DRIFTING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 123.8W ABOUT 1070 MI...1720 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 123.8 West. Irwin is moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is forecast through Friday. A gradual turn toward the northeast is expected Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 20
2017-07-27 10:53:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 27 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 270853 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0900 UTC THU JUL 27 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 123.8W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 123.8W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 123.6W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.6N 124.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 14.5N 124.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 14.3N 124.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.7N 124.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.8N 124.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 22.0N 128.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 24.5N 133.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 123.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Sites : [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] next »