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Hurricane Irwin Graphics

2017-07-26 11:17:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Jul 2017 09:17:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Jul 2017 09:43:34 GMT

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Hurricane Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 16

2017-07-26 10:47:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Jul 26 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 260846 TCDEP5 Hurricane Irwin Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 AM PDT Wed Jul 26 2017 An earlier 0500 UTC METOP-A AMSU image and fortuitous ASCAT A/B overpasses indicate that Irwin's circulation center is located near the southern edge of the cloud canopy. Apparently, the moderate southeasterly outflow produced by Hurricane Hilary is affecting Irwin's core structure. Cloud tops have warmed during the past several hours and a compromise of the Dvorak subjective T-numbers from SAB and TAFB support an initial intensity of 70 kt for this advisory. The global models as well as the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance show continued slow weakening during the next 36 hours while the hurricane remains within the impinging upper-level outflow of Hilary. Afterward, further gradual weakening is forecast as the cyclone traverses cooler oceanic temperatures and enters a less than favorable thermodynamic environment. The official forecast is similar to the previous package and is based on the IVCN consensus. The much anticipated turn toward the west-southwest has finally commenced, and the cyclone motion is estimated to be 255/6 kt. Some binary interaction with Hilary during the next 48 hours or so should cause Irwin to stall, and then accelerate cyclonically around the southeast through northeast periphery of Hilary on days 4 and 5. Global and ensemble models, however, show a much slower forward motion beyond 72 hours than what was indicated in the previous advisory, and adjustments to the 96 and 120 hour forecast periods have been made accordingly. The NHC forecast reflects this significant change in the guidance and is based a blend of the TVCX and HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) models. The ASCAT 0502 UTC scatterometer data and the RVCN multi-model consensus were used for the initial and forecast wind radii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 15.7N 121.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 15.5N 122.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 15.1N 123.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 14.8N 124.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 14.7N 124.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 14.9N 124.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 18.0N 124.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 31/0600Z 20.5N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Hurricane Irwin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

2017-07-26 10:46:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 26 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 260846 PWSEP5 HURRICANE IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0900 UTC WED JUL 26 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) 1(14) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 15N 125W 34 1 18(19) 42(61) 9(70) 19(89) X(89) X(89) 15N 125W 50 X 2( 2) 15(17) 10(27) 19(46) 2(48) X(48) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 12(15) 8(23) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Summary for Hurricane Irwin (EP5/EP102017)

2017-07-26 10:46:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...IRWIN WEAKER...MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 26 the center of Irwin was located near 15.7, -121.5 with movement WSW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

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