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Tropical Storm Vicente Public Advisory Number 5

2018-10-20 16:44:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 201444 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 ...SMALL-SIZED VICENTE FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 93.6W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WSW OF TAPACHULA MEXICO ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southeastern and southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Vicente. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 93.6 West. Vicente is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general track with a slight increase in forward speed is forecast during the next 36 to 48 hours. After that time, a turn to the northwest is anticipated. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Thursday morning, Vicente is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches across southwest Guatemala and the Pacific coast of southern Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 5

2018-10-20 16:44:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 201444 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 Conventional satellite imagery and microwave data continue to reveal that Vicente is an unusually small tropical cyclone. Data show a ring of convection defining the center with most of the thunderstorm activity on the southwestern portion of the circulation. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB yield an initial intensity of 35 kt. The cyclone is not in the best environment for intensification given that the circulation has been interacting with land, however the shear is not high, and the cyclone is over 29 degree Celsius water. Once the circulation separates from land, some slight strengthening is then forecast. After that time, Vicente will be approaching the much larger circulation of strengthening Tropical Cyclone Willa, and the most likely scenario is that at least by 96 hours, Vicente will become absorbed within an outer band of Willa. This is the same scenario which occurred with Hurricane John and Tropical Storm Ileana back in August this year. Vicente is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 6 kt. The nose of a strong subtropical ridge is forecast to amplify and expand westward. This flow pattern should force Vicente to move on a west to west-southwest track for about 36 hours. Then as the cyclone reaches the southwestern end of the ridge and encounters the eastern portion of Willa's circulation, Vicente should turn toward the northwest until it becomes absorbed. It is interesting to note that unanimously, the track guidance forces Vicente to acquire a west-southwesterly component due to the expansion of the ridge, increasing the confidence in the the track forecast during the next 2 to 3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 14.3N 93.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 14.2N 94.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 13.5N 96.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 13.3N 98.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 13.8N 100.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 19.0N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 25/1200Z...ABSORBED BY WILLA $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Vicente Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2018-10-20 16:44:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 201444 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 1500 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 15N 100W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 9(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 100W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 95W 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Advisory Number 5

2018-10-20 16:44:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 201443 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 1500 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 93.6W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 93.6W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 93.3W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.2N 94.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.5N 96.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.3N 98.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.8N 100.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 19.0N 106.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 93.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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