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Hurricane Erick Forecast Discussion Number 11
2019-07-30 04:59:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Jul 29 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 300258 CCA TCDEP1 Hurricane Erick Discussion Number 11...corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 500 PM HST Mon Jul 29 2019 Corrected Central Pacific Hurricane Center web link Erick has finally become a hurricane. Microwave and visible data indicate that a ragged eye is present, and deep convection has been increasing near the center. All of the satellite agencies agree on an initial intensity of 65 kt, so that will be the advisory wind speed. The environment is expected to generally be conducive for continued intensification during the next 36-48 hours, and Erick could still attain major hurricane status during that time. Thereafter, a significant increase in shear is predicted by almost all of the guidance. This is a strong signal for rapid weakening in the 2-3 day time frame, and the official forecast follows suit, showing a more rapid weakening than the previous advisory. The hurricane has been moving faster to the west recently, but a longer-term motion is 280/16. The mid-level ridge to the north is still forecast to weaken tomorrow but stay in place, causing a slower west-northwestward track. Track guidance is more divergent tonight with the ECMWF and its ensemble considerably faster than the rest of the models. It is notable, however, that the models have been doing a rather poor job on the track as they all have been biased too slow and poleward during the past couple of days. Thus, the new forecast has been shifted to the southwest of the previous one, on the western side of the model consensus, but is still behind the ECMWF guidance for forecast continuity. This is the last NHC advisory on Erick since the hurricane is crossing 140W and moving into the central Pacific basin. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 11 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web at http://hurricanes.gov/cphc. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 12.7N 140.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 13.1N 142.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 13.9N 144.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 14.6N 146.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 15.2N 148.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 16.0N 153.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 16.7N 157.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 17.7N 161.4W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Hurricane Erick (EP1/EP062019)
2019-07-30 04:57:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK BECOMES A HURRICANE AND HEADS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... As of 5:00 PM HST Mon Jul 29 the center of Erick was located near 12.7, -140.0 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Erick Public Advisory Number 11
2019-07-30 04:57:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Jul 29 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 300257 CCA TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Erick Advisory Number 11...corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 500 PM HST Mon Jul 29 2019 Corrected Central Pacific Huricane Center web link ...ERICK BECOMES A HURRICANE AND HEADS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 140.0W ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 140.0 West. Erick is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A west-northwest course at a slower forward speed is expected to begin on Tuesday and continue through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours before weakening is predicted to start late Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 11 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web at http://hurricanes.gov/cphc. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Erick Graphics
2019-07-30 04:41:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 30 Jul 2019 02:41:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 30 Jul 2019 03:24:37 GMT
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Hurricane Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2019-07-30 04:40:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 30 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 300240 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019 0300 UTC TUE JUL 30 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X 42(42) 37(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) 15N 145W 50 X 8( 8) 29(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) 15N 145W 64 X 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 49(52) 32(84) X(84) X(84) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 36(55) X(55) X(55) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) 4(42) X(42) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 22(38) 1(39) 15N 155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) 15N 155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 1(26) 18N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 18N 156W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) X(16) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 6(30) BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 15N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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