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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-12 19:24:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
432 ABNT20 KNHC 121724 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Florence, located over the western Atlantic Ocean, on Hurricane Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, and on Tropical Storm Isaac, located a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad area of low pressure has formed in the central Gulf of Mexico. Although the shower activity is still disorganized, upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development, and it is likely that a tropical depression will form on Thursday, before the system reaches the western Gulf coast. Another reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana late this week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system, and refer to products from their local weather office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Satellite images indicate that a strong area of low pressure located a little more than 600 miles west-southwest of the Azores is rapidly becoming better organized and a subtropical or tropical storm appears to be forming. If this trend continues, advisories will be initiated later today or tonight. The low is forecast to move toward the southwest for the next couple of days, and then turn to the northeast behind Hurricane Helene. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to develop near Bermuda late this weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is possible after that time while the system drifts westward over the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Avila
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