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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-21 01:44:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
186 ABNT20 KNHC 202344 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A small but concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located about 650 miles east of the Windward Islands. The combination of dry mid-level air and strong upper-level winds are expected to hinder any development of this disturbance while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. A non-tropical area of low pressure with gale-force winds, located about 100 miles north-northeast of Bermuda, is moving southeastward at about 15 mph. The combination of dry air associated with a weakening frontal system and strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit any significant development for the next couple of days. However, conditions could become a bit more conducive for this low to gradually acquire some tropical characteristics early next week while the system moves southward on Sunday, and then drifts westward to the southwest of Bermuda on Monday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Another non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop by Friday night over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean midway between Bermuda and the Azores. Conditions are expected to be conducive for the low to acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone could form late this weekend or early next week while the low meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A tropical wave is moving off the coast of Guinea in western Africa. Some slow but gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days as the disturbance moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the low latitudes of the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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