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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-25 13:52:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
397 ABNT20 KNHC 251152 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical Depression Leslie, located a little over 1100 miles west-southwest of the Azores. A broad area of low pressure located about 260 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to produce showers and thunderstorms on its north side. Satellite and surface data indicate that the circulation of the low is elongated and not well organized. However, this system could still become a tropical depression later today while it moves northwestward. By tonight and Wednesday, additional development appears unlikely, due to strong upper-level winds, while the system moves northward and north-northeastward near the southeastern United States coast. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this system is likely to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina later today and tonight. In addition, dangerous surf conditions and rip currents are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast today. For more information, please see products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. The remnants of Kirk are located about 950 miles east of the Windward Islands and are moving quickly westward at around 25 mph. This system continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms, along with winds to near gale force in gusts on its north side. However, satellite data indicate that the system still lacks a closed circulation. This disturbance could redevelop into a tropical cyclone during the next day or two before it moves into an area of highly unfavorable upper-level winds while it approaches the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance as gusty winds and locally heavy rains are likely over the next couple of days even if the system does not redevelop into a tropical cyclone. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Subtropical Depression Leslie is forecast to become post-tropical today after it merges with a cold front over the central Atlantic. After that time, Leslie is expected to reacquire subtropical or tropical characteristics by the end of the week as it meanders over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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