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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-25 22:08:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
941 ABNT20 KNHC 252008 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook...Resent NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie, located a little more than 1000 miles west-southwest of the Azores. A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Satellite and surface data indicate that the circulation of the low remains elongated and not well defined. However, this system could still become a tropical depression this afternoon or tonight while it moves slowly northwestward to northward. By Wednesday, additional development appears unlikely due to strong upper-level winds while the system moves northward and north-northeastward near the eastern United States coast. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this afternoon. Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina this afternoon and tonight. In addition, dangerous surf conditions and rip currents are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast today. For more information, please see products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. The remnants of Kirk are located more than 800 miles east of the Windward Islands and are moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph. This system continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms, along with winds to near gale force on its north side. Although satellite data indicate that the system still lacks a closed circulation, this disturbance could still redevelop into a tropical cyclone during the next day or two before it moves into an area of highly unfavorable upper-level winds as it approaches the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance as gusty winds and locally heavy rains are likely over the next couple of days even if the system does not redevelop into a tropical cyclone. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie is forecast to meander over the central Atlantic for the next day or so. By Thursday or Friday, Leslie is expected to reacquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while the cyclone moves slowly eastward to east-northeastward over the north-central Atlantic. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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