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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-26 01:16:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
581 ABNT20 KNHC 252316 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the circulation associated with the low pressure area centered about 175 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, has become better defined. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, and the low has not yet developed into a tropical depression. Some additional development is possible tonight as the low moves northward near or over portions of extreme eastern North Carolina. After tonight, development appears unlikely due to strong upper-level winds while the system moves generally north-northeastward near the eastern United States coast. Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina tonight. In addition, dangerous surf conditions and rip currents are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast tonight. For more information, please see products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. The remnants of Kirk are located about 750 miles east of the Windward Islands and are moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little better organized during the last several hours, however, the system still appears to lack a closed circulation. This disturbance is likely to redevelop into a tropical cyclone during the next day or two before it moves into an area of highly unfavorable upper-level winds as it approaches the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance as gusty winds and locally heavy rains are likely over the next couple of days even if the system does not redevelop into a tropical cyclone. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie is currently centered about 950 miles southwest of the Azores Islands, and it is forecast to meander over the central Atlantic for the next day or so. By Thursday or Friday, Leslie is expected to reacquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while the cyclone moves slowly eastward to east-northeastward over the north-central Atlantic. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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