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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-26 07:36:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
939 ABNT20 KNHC 260536 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A weak low pressure system located about 100 miles south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is producing disorganized shower activity, mainly to the east of the center. Strong upper-level winds are expected to increase further over the system today, and the chances for tropical cyclone formation are decreasing. The low is forecast to move north-northeastward along or near the North Carolina coast later this morning, and it could produce scattered showers and dangerous surf and rip currents across eastern North Carolina as it passes by. The low is expected to move northeastward and merge with a frontal system or dissipate offshore of the New England coast on Thursday. For more information, please see products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Thunderstorm activity has increased and become better organized in association with the remnants of Kirk located about 650 miles east of the Windward Islands. Recent satellite-derived wind data also indicate that the circulation has become better defined and that the winds have increased. If this development trend continues, then advisories will be re-initiated on this system later this morning. Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is schedule to investigate this disturbance later today. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie centered about 850 miles west-southwest of the Azores is producing disorganized shower activity and gale-force winds. Leslie is expected to reacquire subtropical or tropical characteristics on Thursday or Friday while the cyclone meanders over the north-central Atlantic. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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