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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-11 01:13:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 102312 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A surface trough located over the Turks and Caicos is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms over the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas, and extending northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Ship reports indicate that tropical-storm-force wind gusts are occurring in some of the heavier squalls. Limited development of this disturbance is expected during the next few days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward across the Bahamas due to only marginally conducive upper-level winds. However, environmental conditions could become more favorable for development when the system moves over the Florida Straits and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico late this week and over the weekend. Regardless of development, this disturbance will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida on Friday and continuing into the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A broad low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Although this disturbance continues to produce disorganized shower activity, some slight development of this system is still possible tonight and Wednesday. By Thursday, however, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. This disturbance is expected to move slowly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands is expected to move quickly westward during the next several days. Some slow development is possible over the weekend when the system is a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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