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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-11 07:02:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 110502 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A surface trough located over the Turks and Caicos continues to produce widespread cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos, and extending northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Ship reports continue to indicate that tropical-storm-force wind gusts are occurring in some of the heavier squalls. Limited development of this disturbance is expected during the next few days due to only marginally conducive upper-level winds while the system moves very slowly west-northwestward across the Bahamas. However, environmental conditions could become more favorable for development when the system moves over the Florida Straits and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Friday and over the weekend. Regardless of development, this disturbance will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida by late Friday and continuing into the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A broad low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is located about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Although this disturbance continues to produce disorganized shower activity, some slight development of this system is still possible on Wednesday. By Thursday, however, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. This disturbance is expected to move slowly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to move quickly westward during the next several days. Some slow development is possible over the weekend or early next week when the system is expected to be a couple of hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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