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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-20 19:55:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 201755 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Jerry, located about a hundred miles northeast of the Leeward Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands has increased during the past 24 hours. The wave is expected to head quickly westward at about 20 mph during the next few days and will move across the Windward Islands this weekend. Some development is possible during that time and a tropical depression could form by early next week. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development next week once the wave moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A broad area of low pressure located just south of Haiti has become a little better defined today. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is still disorganized, and pressures in the region are rising. Strong upper-level winds will likely prevent significant development of this system while it moves slowly west-northwestward for the next few days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba through the weekend. These heavy rains could cause flash flooding and mudslides in areas of high terrain. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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