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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-21 19:35:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 211734 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located a couple hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft has been investigating a tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands this afternoon. The aircraft found evidence of a sharp surface trough but confirmed that a well-defined circulation has not formed. Although the system is currently disorganized, at least gradual development is anticipated and a tropical depression could form later this weekend or early next week. The wave is forecast to move quickly westward for the next day or two, crossing the Windward Islands on Sunday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over much of the Lesser Antilles over the weekend, and interests on those islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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