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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-22 01:22:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 212321 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong tropical wave located less than 100 miles east of Barbados have not become any better organized during the day, and the system does not have a well-defined circulation. However, a NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission earlier this afternoon indicated that the wave is producing winds to 35 mph. At least gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form during the next couple of days while it moves westward and then northwestward at about 15 mph across the Windward Islands and over the eastern Caribbean Sea. This system is then expected to turn northward, moving near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely over much of the Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days and will likely spread across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Monday night or Tuesday. Interests across the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa overnight and on Sunday. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of the wave once it moves over water, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form during the early or middle part of next week while moving westward to west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
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