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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-22 04:59:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 220258 TWOAT Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Updated for the low pressure area near the Windward Islands. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Updated: A strong tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure area located between Barbados and Tobago, is producing showers and thunderstorms that are showing signs of organization. In addition, recent satellite-derived surface wind data and observations from Barbados indicate that the disturbance is producing winds to near tropical storm force in the eastern portion of the system. Further development of this disturbance is expected over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form while it moves westward and then northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Windward Islands and over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The system is then expected to turn northward, moving near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are likely over much of the Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days and will likely spread across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Monday night or Tuesday. Interests across the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this disturbance since tropical storm watches and warnings could be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa overnight and on Sunday. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of the wave once it moves over water, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form during the early or middle part of next week while moving westward to west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. && Further information on the system near the Windward Islands can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Stewart/Blake
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