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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-04 19:43:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 041743 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gamma, located just north of the Yucatan Peninsula over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico. A broad area of low pressure is located over the central Caribbean Sea, a little less than 100 miles south-southeast of eastern Jamaica. Recent satellite wind data and visible satellite imagery indicate that the circulation is gradually becoming better defined, however, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization since this morning. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so, while the system moves over the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is forecast to move near Jamaica through Monday, and then pass near the Cayman Islands early Tuesday and approach western Cuba by late Tuesday, and interests in those areas should closely monitor the progress of this system. The low is forecast to move into the southern or southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or Wednesday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible across portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba during the next few days. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic have become limited today. The system is moving into an area of strong upper-level winds and development of this system is not anticipated. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Atlantic about 1000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. This system is expected to move toward the west-southwest at around 10 mph, and some slow development is possible during the next couple of days before it encounters strong upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
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