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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-26 07:37:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 260537 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually becoming better organized in association with a trough of low pressure located a couple hundred miles south of Jamaica. While recent satellite wind data indicate that the system does not yet have a well-defined circulation, environmental conditions remain conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form later today or tomorrow. The system is forecast to move northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later today, near Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible through the weekend in portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba. In addition, this system could bring dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next week. However, uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to form. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 650 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves slowly northeastward over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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