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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-12 02:06:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 120005 CCA TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021 Corrected to change the order of the system northeast of the Azores. For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A tropical wave and an upper-level trough continue to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of southeastern Mexico and the southern and central Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday while the disturbance moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Additional development will be possible through the middle of next week if the system remains over water, and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow, if necessary. Regardless of development, this disturbance will continue to produce heavy rain across portions of southern Mexico, including the western Yucatan Peninsula, through tonight which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. By late Sunday, heavy rain is expected to reach portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts with a heavy rain threat then continuing across those coasts through the middle of next week. Localized significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Showers and thunderstorms remain poorly organized in association with a tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are currently conducive for development, and a tropical depression could still form this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward over the far eastern Atlantic. By the middle of next week, stronger upper-level winds and marginally warm ocean temperatures are expected to limit additional development. Regardless of development, this disturbance is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain across the Cabo Verde Islands tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic several hundred miles northeast of the Azores. This system is forecast to move south-southeastward towards warmer waters, which could allow the low to gradually acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics by the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Another tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in a few days. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could from by the middle of next week while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to form near the southeastern Bahamas in a few days resulting from moisture by a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves northwestward across the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin
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