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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-16 01:34:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 152334 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Nicholas, located over southwestern Louisiana. Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in association with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A low pressure system located about midway between the Bahamas and Bermuda is producing poorly organized shower activity. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the system this afternoon reported that the circulation was disorganized and that the strongest winds were well to the east of the center. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves north-northwestward to northward off the southeast U.S. coast. Regardless of development, this system could bring high surf to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts later this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa in a day or two. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development while the system moves generally west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on Tropical Depression Nicholas can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov or hurricanes.gov $$ Forecaster Beven
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