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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-16 19:37:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 161737 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas, located near the central coast of Louisiana. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave and broad area of low pressure located a little more than 900 miles west- southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have become less organized since yesterday. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is still likely to form over the weekend. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of the Outer Banks of North Carolina are beginning to show some signs of organization. However, recent satellite wind data suggest that the system currently lacks a well-defined center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has just begun its investigation of the disturbance. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to support additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the system moves northward to north-northeastward off the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts. Regardless of development, this system could bring high surf to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts later this week and this weekend. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the far eastern tropical Atlantic are associated with a tropical wave along the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive, and development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur over the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov or hurricanes.gov High Seas Forecasts for the system off the Outer Banks of North Carolina issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Brown
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