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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-17 19:45:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 171740 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas, located over Louisiana. Recent satellite images indicate that a new and better-defined center of circulation has developed in association with a low pressure area located about 250 miles east of Norfolk, Virginia. In addition, shower and thunderstorm activity is becoming more organized near this new center. If these development trends continue, then a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight while the low moves toward the northeast or east-northeast at 10 to 15 mph, away from the United States Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts. The low is expected to transform into a non-tropical gale-force low Saturday or Saturday night while it is located south of Atlantic Canada, and it is likely to bring strong winds and heavy rains to portions of Newfoundland by Sunday and Sunday night. This system is also expected to bring high surf to portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. coasts and Atlantic Canada through this weekend. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave and broad area of low pressure located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands have become a little better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week while moving toward the west-northwest at about 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic and then near the northern Leeward Islands by Monday and Tuesday. Upper-level winds could become less conducive for development over the southwestern Atlantic by the early to middle part of next week. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move toward the west and then northwest at 5 to 10 mph over the far eastern Atlantic, and some gradual development is possible over the weekend before upper-level winds increase and the low moves over cooler waters. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov or hurricanes.gov High Seas Forecasts for the system off the United States Mid-Atlantic coast issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Berg
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