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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-09-12 13:52:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 121152 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Francine, located inland over south-central Mississippi, and on Tropical Depression Seven, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Development of this system is not expected while it moves westward at around 10 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent. East of the Leeward Islands (AL94): Showers and thunderstorms have become a bit more concentrated in association with a small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. However, the proximity of dry air near the system is expected to limit additional development over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to become even less conducive over the weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Offshore the Southeastern U.S.: In a few days, a non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a residual frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development is possible during the early part of next week while the system drifts to the north or northwest. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Depression Francine (AT1/AL062024)
2024-09-12 13:42:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRANCINE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... As of 7:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 the center of Francine was located near 31.9, -90.1 with movement NNE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Francine Public Advisory Number 15A
2024-09-12 13:42:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 121142 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 700 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 ...FRANCINE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 90.1W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM S OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued between Grand Isle, Louisiana and the mouth of the Pearl River The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, including Lake Maurepas, Lake Pontchartrain, and metropolitan New Orleans. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * The mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Francine was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 90.1 West. Francine is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected during the next day or so, with some decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Francine will move over central and northern portions of Mississippi through early Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Francine is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible for the next several hours over portions of southeastern Louisiana, southeastern and central Mississippi, and southwestern Alabama. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches across portions of Mississippi, eastern Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. Localized amounts up to 10 inches are possible within rain bands over portions of central and northern Alabama and over the Florida Panhandle. This rainfall could lead to locally considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today, mainly this morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. SURF: Swells generated by Francine will continue to affect much of the northern Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics