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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-09-13 13:35:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 131135 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Seven, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine, located inland over northeastern Arkansas. Northern Leeward Islands (AL94): Surface observations indicate a small area of low pressure is located over the northern Leeward Islands. The system continues to produce showers and thunderstorms this morning, but they have not become any better organized. Environmental conditions, including the proximity of dry air, do not favor development of this system while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible across the northern Leeward Islands today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Offshore the Southeastern U.S.: A non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline this weekend. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development is possible during the early part of next week while the system moves generally northwestward toward the coast. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Ileana (EP4/EP092024)
2024-09-13 13:35:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CENTER OF ILEANA MOVING TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING... As of 5:00 AM MST Fri Sep 13 the center of Ileana was located near 21.8, -109.0 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Ileana Public Advisory Number 4A
2024-09-13 13:35:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 131135 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 500 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 ...CENTER OF ILEANA MOVING TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 109.0W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to Loreto * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 109.0 West. Ileana is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower north-northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is expected to move across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula today and over the Gulf of California this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Ileana reaches the Baja California peninsula. Weakening is expected over the weekend, and Ileana is forecast to dissipate by early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Through this weekend, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce rainfall of 4 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California Sur. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may result between 6 to 8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics